| 用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型对新疆卫生人力资源的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张学良,秦伶俐.用灰色系统GM（1,1）模型对新疆卫生人力资源的研究[J].新疆医科大学学报,2000,23(1):62-65. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张学良 秦伶俐 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]新疆医科大学基础医学院 [2]新疆财经学院基础部 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的：研究新疆卫生人力资源的配置参考。方法：利用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型方法，对新疆１９８７～１９９６年卫生人力资源中的医生数、护（师）士数和床位数进行拟合。结果：分别建立了３个ＧＭ（１，１）模型。医生数模型Ｙ１（ｔ）＝９０．３６６４３ｅ＾０．０３４１６８（ｔ－１）－８７．７１７５４３，拟合精度为９９．５％，护（师）士数模型Ｙ２（ｔ）＝７３．６１７５２ｅ＾０．０２９１２４（ｔ－１）－７１．８３４
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM（1 1）模型 人力资源 新疆 |
A Study of the health manpower resources in Xinjiang by using grey systems GM(1,1) models |
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| ZHANG Xue-liang, QIN Lin-li,.A Study of the health manpower resources in Xinjiang by using grey systems GM(1,1) models[J].Journal of Xinjiang Medical University,2000,23(1):62-65. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Xue-liang QIN Lin-li |
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| Institution: | Department of Fundation Collage. Xinjiang Medical University |
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| Abstract: | Objective: To study the standards of health manpower resources distribution in Xinjiang. Methods: By using Grey Systems GM(1, 1) models, we made quasi-conjunctions on the number of doctors, senior and junior nurses and beds of health manpower resources in Xinjiang from 1987 to 1996. Results: Three GM(1, 1) models were established.The accuracy of the models on the number of doctors (Y1 (t)=90.36643e~(0.034168)(t-1)-87.717543 was 99.5% and on the number of senior and junior nurses(Y2(t)=73.61752e~(0.029124)(t-1) was 98.99% and on .the number of beds (Y3(t)=446.737779e~(0.014606)(t-1) 98.88%. Conclusions: The three GM (1,1) models established in this essay are all highly accurate quasi-conjunction models(prediction), and the standards of health manpower resources in our region from 1997 to 2005 are also provided in the essay. |
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| Keywords: | grey systems GM(1 1) models: doctors senior and junior nurses: beds: MAPE |
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