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乘数法在艾滋病高危人群基数估计中的应用
引用本文:程峰,王斌,罗雷,栾荣生,吕繁,杨春霞,张大鹏,袁萍,毛宇嵘,曾刚,王琳琅,梁伯衡.乘数法在艾滋病高危人群基数估计中的应用[J].中国自然医学杂志,2003,5(3):133-134,136.
作者姓名:程峰  王斌  罗雷  栾荣生  吕繁  杨春霞  张大鹏  袁萍  毛宇嵘  曾刚  王琳琅  梁伯衡
作者单位:1. 中英性病艾滋病防治合作项目办公室,北京,100050
2. 四川大学华西公共卫生学院
3. 中国疾病预防控制中心流行病室
摘    要:目的 探讨乘数法在艾滋病高危人群(暗娼人群、静脉吸毒人群、同性恋人群)基数估计中的运用。方法 运用乘数法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计。结果 乘数法对绵阳市市区女性商业性性工作者和乐山市市区静脉吸毒人群的估计分别为5080人和1703人,未能对成都市市区同性恋人群基数做出较好估计。结论 运用乘数法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计实施简易,结果可信,但需注意乘数法的适用人群和实施注意事项。

关 键 词:乘数法  艾滋病  高危人群  基数估计  暗娼人群  静脉吸毒人群  同性恋人群

Applications of Multiplier Method in Estimating the Size of Sub-populations at High Risk for HIV/AIDS
CHENG Feng,WANG Bin,LUO Lei,et al..Applications of Multiplier Method in Estimating the Size of Sub-populations at High Risk for HIV/AIDS[J].Chinese Journal of Natural Medicine,2003,5(3):133-134,136.
Authors:CHENG Feng  WANG Bin  LUO Lei  
Institution:CHENG Feng,WANG Bin,LUO Lei,et al.China-uk HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care Project Office,Beijing 100050,China
Abstract:Objective To explore applications of multiplier method in estimating the size of sub-populations at high risk for HIV infection. Methods Multiplier method was applied to estimate the size of commercial sex workers in Mianyang downtown,injection drug users in Leshan downtown,and homosexual population in Chengdu. Results The sizes of the commercial sex workers and injection drug users were 5 080 and 1 703,respectively.The size of homosexual population could not be counted out. Conclusion Applications of multiplier method in estimating the size of sub-populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS is simple and credible.Suitable population and operation attention should be well considered in applications.
Keywords:Multiplier Method  Commercial Sex Workers  Injection Drug Users  Homosexual Population
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