基于人群的肿瘤登记数据评估患者生存的方法学研究进展

评估和监测癌症患者的长期生存情况，计算存活率是评估癌症治疗效果和癌症负担的必要指标。队列法是传统的肿瘤监测数据生存分析方法，但其纳入的是往年诊断的患者，不能体现新近诊断的患者因医疗技术提高而导致的实际存活率上升。因此，近年来出现了周期分析法和基于模型的周期分析法。周期分析法纳入的病例均为感兴趣时期内的病例，能够体现新近诊断患者的实际生存情况；而基于模型的周期分析法不仅能利用已有的数据来估算存活率和分析变化趋势，还能预测未来的存活率。相较于传统的队列法，周期分析法和基于模型的周期分析法在生存分析的时效性和准确性方面更具优势。本文就队列法、周期分析法和基于模型的周期分析法的概念、原理、计算方法和应用进行综述。

Methodology for survival assessment of cancer patients using population-based cancer registration data

Evaluating and monitoring long-term survival of cancer patients and reporting the survival rate are routinely employed by cancer registries. Long-term survival rate is a necessary indicator in evaluating the effect of cancer therapy and cancer burden. Cohort method is a traditional approach for survival analysis, but it essentially reflects the survival expectations of patients diagnosed many years ago, therefore survival status of cancer patients was often disclosed with delay. Given the limitation of cohort method, period analysis and model-based period analysis are subsequently proposed and gradually applied in assessment of survival rates in recent years. Period analysis includes the patients of interest period, which reflects more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival of cancer patients. While model-based period analysis can use the existing data to calculate survival rates and to assess the trend, and predict survival rates in the future. Compared with cohort approach, period analysis and model-based period analysis are better in timeliness and precision in survival analysis. This article reviews the definition and theory, calculation and application of cohort method, period analysis and model-based period analysis, in order to provide a basis on up-to-date and precise assessment of survival rates of cancer patients.