邯郸市流脑发病率与气象因素关系的探讨

目的 探索适用于研究流脑发病率和气象因素关系的科学方法,分析邯郸市流脑发病与气象因素间的关系.方法 收集1972年1月至2010年12月邯郸市流脑疫情资料、气象资料和人口资料,采用EpiData3.0进行＂双重录入＂,应用SPSS 17.0统计软件分析流脑月发病率和气象因素.结果 ①气象参数的共线性诊断结果显示,本组气象因子数据容差最小为0.014,方差膨胀因子最大达69.998.②流脑疫苗计划免疫之前流脑月发病率呈现三次模型曲线,之后呈对数模型曲线.两个曲线估计方程分别为Y=1.346＋0.152X-0.003X2＋1.224X10-5X3和Y=1.798-0.348ln（X）.③流脑和10个气象因素之间均不呈线性关系.流脑月发病率与月平均风速之间得到三次曲线拟合方程Y=3.254-4.551X＋1.715X2c-0.118X3.结论 邯郸市流脑与10个气象因素之间不适合做直线相关分析和多元回归分析.流脑疫苗计划免疫前后流脑月发病率呈现不同的模型曲线,计划免疫对其影响巨大.月平均风速是影响流脑发病率的主要气象因素.

Study on the Relationships between the Incidence of Epidemic Cerebrospinal Meningitis and Meteorological Factors in Handan

Objective To explore the scientific method applicable for the research on the relationship between epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis incidence and meteorological factors, to analyze the relationship in Handan City. Methods The data of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis,meteorological parameters and popu- lation from January 1997 to December 2010 in Handan were collected and inputted doubly to EpiData 3.0. The database was established using SPSS17.0 statistical analysis software. Results （~）Collinearity diagnosis of meteorological parameters showed that the minimal tolerance Was 0. 014 and the maximal variance inflation factor was 69. 998. （~）Before epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis vaccine planned immunization, the monthly incidence was the cubic model curve, and it was a logarithmic model curve after the planned immunization. A The two curve estimation equations of epidemic cerebmspinal meningitis monthly incidence were Y = 1. 346 ＋ 0.152X -0. 003X2 ＋ 1. 224X10-5 X3 and I/= 1. 798 -0. 348ln （X）. （~）There were no linear relationships between epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis monthly incidence and the ten meteorological parameters. The curve fitting equation of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis monthly incidence and monthly average wind speed was I/= 3. 254 - 4.551X ＋ 1.715X2 - 0. I 18X3. Conclusion Linear correlation analysis and multi- ple regression analysis were not suitable for the relationships among epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis and ten meteorological parameters in Handan. The monthly incidence of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis has different model curves before and after planned immunization. So the planned immunization has a huge impact on it. Monthly average wind speed is the main meteorological parameter influencing epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis incidence.