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江苏省戊型肝炎发病趋势的时间序列模型应用
引用本文:胡建利,祖荣强,彭志行,陈 峰,鲍昌俊.江苏省戊型肝炎发病趋势的时间序列模型应用[J].南京医科大学学报,2011(12):1874-1878.
作者姓名:胡建利  祖荣强  彭志行  陈 峰  鲍昌俊
作者单位:江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所,江苏 南京 210009;江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所,江苏 南京 210009;南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江苏 南京 210029;南京医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系,江苏 南京 210029;江苏省疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防制所,江苏 南京 210009
基金项目:江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2010079)
摘    要:目的:探讨ARIMA模型在戊型肝炎发病预测方面的应用,为戊型肝炎的早期预警提供决策依据?方法:应用Eviews5.0软件对1997~2009年江苏省戊型肝炎月发病数据进行模型拟合,建立时间序列分析模型,用模型对2010年戊型肝炎逐月发病数进行预测分析,并用2010年的实际发病数据评估模型预测效果?结果:ARIMA模型较好地拟合了既往戊型肝炎的实际发病序列,残差序列通过了白噪声检验(P > 0.05),对2010年各月发病数进行预测也获得了较好的预测效果?结论:ARIMA模型能较好地模拟江苏省戊型肝炎的发病趋势,可用于戊型肝炎疫情的短期预测和动态分析?

关 键 词:ARIMA模型    时间序列    戊型肝炎    预测
收稿时间:2011/5/29 0:00:00

Application of time series analysis in the prediction of incidence trend of hepatitis E in Jiangsu province
HU Jian-li,ZU Rong-qiang,PENG Zhi-hang,CHEN Feng and BAO Chang-jun.Application of time series analysis in the prediction of incidence trend of hepatitis E in Jiangsu province[J].Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Nanjing,2011(12):1874-1878.
Authors:HU Jian-li  ZU Rong-qiang  PENG Zhi-hang  CHEN Feng and BAO Chang-jun
Institution:Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Nanjing 210009;Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Nanjing 210009;Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics,NJMU,Nanjing 210029,China;Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics,NJMU,Nanjing 210029,China;Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Jiangsu Province Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Nanjing 210009
Abstract:Objective: To explore the application of ARIMA model on prediction of hepatitis E in Jiangsu Province. Methods: Eviews 5.0 software was performed to construct the ARIMA mode based on monthly incidence of hepatitis E from 1997 Jan to 2009 Dec in Jiangsu province,and the constructed model was applied to predict the monthly incidence in 2010. Results: ARIMA(3,1,1)(1,1,0)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous time series,and got a good result on the predictive incidence in 2010. Conclusion: The ARIMA model can be used to make a short-term prediction and a dynamic analysis on hepatitis E.
Keywords:autoregressive integrated moving average model  time series  hepatitis E  prediction
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