Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jing LI Tian Tian TAN Jian Guo HUANG Cun Rui andKAN Hai Dong |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Jing(School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China)；LI Tian Tian(Institute of Environmental Health and Related Product Safety, China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China)；TAN Jian Guo(Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Institute, SMB, Shanghai 200030, China)；HUANG Cun Rui(School of Public Health and Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland 4059, Australia)；andKAN Hai Dong(School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China)； |
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| Abstract: | ObjectiveTo study therelationbetween temperature andmortalitybyestimatingthe temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. MethodsData of daily mortality, weather and air pollutioninthe three citieswere collected.A distributed lag nonlinear model wasestablishedand used in analyzing theeffects oftemperatureon mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. ResultsThe association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, withanincreased death riskof both hot and cold temperature in thesecities. The effects of cold temperatureonhealth lasted longer thanthoseof hot temperature.Theprojected temperature-related mortality increasedwith the decreasedcold-related mortality.Themortalitywas higher inGuangzhouthan inBeijing and Shanghai. ConclusionThe impact of temperatureonhealth varies inthe 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Temperature Mortality Time-series |
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