长三角地区城市规模分布与上海的合理规模

根据测算,长三角地区的城市规模分布属于典型的首位分布,进入新世纪以来其城市人口首位集中度不断下降,但首位城市的城市人口绝对规模仍然占到整个长三角地区的30%左右。那么,首位城市上海的合理人口规模究竟多大合适？各界为此争论不休。实际上,上海合理的人口规模主要取决于其中心城市职能的多寡和力度大小,即取决于市场经济条件下上海及其腹地乃至全国经济发展的需要。根据其功能定位,到2030年上海需要发展到2220万人（指常住人口）,从资源供给来看上海能够承载得起这一人口规模。

Urban Population Distribution in Yangtze Rive Delta Area and the Reasonability of Shanghai''''s Population

According to estimation, urban population distribution in Yangtze Rive Delta Area belongs to the typical primacy distribution. The population in the primacy city accounts for 30% of Yangtze Rive Delta Area, and the reasonable population of Shanghai depends on its functions and strength. According to its functions, the population of Shanghai should arrive at the reasonable amount of 22.2 million in 2030.