Association between the arrested decline in cardiovascular disease and health and social-care costs: a modelling study

BackgroundDementia and cardiovascular disease generate enormous health and social-care costs and have shared risk factors. Following decades of cardiovascular disease mortality declines in England, improvements slowed after 2011. We investigated the potential economic implications of this slowdown.MethodsWe used the IMPACT better aging model—an open-cohort, stochastic Markov model. We synthesised trends in cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality, dementia, and disability (defined as reported diagnosis, functional impairment, or measured cognitive impairment) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and Office for National Statistics data. We projected trends for adults aged 35–100 years in England and Wales from 2019–29. We modelled undiscounted health and social-care costs (primary outcome), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) under the following two scenarios: age-specific cardiovascular disease incidence continues to decline, recommencing previous downward trends (scenario one); or age-specific cardiovascular disease incidence plateaus after 2006, continuing recent trends, assuming changes in mortality reflect incidence 5 years before (scenario two). We linked 85% of ELSA participants to their Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data, which were costed and calibrated to national estimates. Age-related social-care costs were estimated by use of reported contact hours from ELSA combined with standard reference costs. Standard catalogues were used for QALY weights.FindingsIn scenario one, changes in population size and health were projected to increase health-care costs by around 12% between 2019 and 2029, from £93·0 billion to £104·6 billion per year (in 2019 prices). Social-care costs were projected to increase by around 27%, from £8·0 billion to £10·2 billion per year. In scenario two, health-care costs were projected to increase by around 15%, from £95·3 billion to £109·6 billion, and social-care costs by around 30%, from £8·2 billion to £10·7 billion, between 2019 and 2029. The overall net monetary cost of this slowdown in cardiovascular disease decline was £17·5 billion per year (made up of 200 000 QALYs and £5·5 billion in health and social-care costs).InterpretationWe predict social-care costs will grow twice as fast as health-care costs over the next decade, even if cardiovascular disease occurrence continues to decline. Understanding the scale of the future health and social-care funding challenge might support proactive policy making. This study represents the first time ELSA data have been linked with HES data. However, we did not assess changes in health and social-care efficiency over time or the effect of spending on improving health.FundingBritish Heart Foundation