不同气候模式下我国长角血蜱潜在适生区预测

［摘要］　目的　分析环境和气候因子对我国长角血蜱适生区分布的影响，并预测不同气候模式下长角血蜱的潜在分布区。方法　从文献中获取我国长角血蜱分布点信息，结合环境和气候因子数据，运用MaxEnt最大熵模型，分析年均温、昼夜温差日均值、等温性、温度季节性变化标准差、最暖月最高温、最冷月最低温、年均温变化范围、最湿季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度、最暖季度平均温度、最冷季度平均温度、年均降水量、最湿月降水量、最干月降水量、降水量变异系数、最湿季度降水量、最干季度降水量、最暖季度降水量、最冷季度降水量等19个气候因子及海拔、坡度、坡向、植被覆盖率等4个环境因子对长角血蜱潜在分布的影响，并预测当前和未来不同气候模式下（RCP 2.6和RCP 8.5）长角血蜱潜在地理分布区。结果　在影响我国长角血蜱地理分布的环境和气候因子中，贡献率均超过10%的因子主要包括最干月降水量（26.0%）、年均温（11.2%）、年均降水量（10.0%）和海拔（24.2%）。当前气候模式下，我国长角血蜱高、中、低适生区面积分别为123.19万、169.62万、185.44万km2。在RCP 2.6气候模式下，2050和2070年我国长角血蜱分布区面积分别增加33.61万km2和36.73万km2；在RCP 8.5气候模式下，2050年和2070年我国长角血蜱分布区面积分别增加38.10万km2 和35.80万km2。结论　降水、温度和海拔等气候和环境因子对我国长角血蜱分布区影响较大；在未来不同气候模式下，我国长角血蜱适生区面积均可能增加。

Potential suitable habitats of Haemaphysalis longicornis in China under different climatic patterns

Objective　To evaluate the impact of environmental and climatic factors on the distribution of suitable habitats of Haemaphysalis longicornis, and to predict the potential distribution of H. longicornis under different climate patterns in China. Methods　Data pertaining to the distribution of H. longicornis were retrieved from public literatures. The effects of 19 climatic factors (annual mean temperature, annual mean temperature difference between day and night, isothermality, standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature annual range, mean temperature of the wettest season, mean temperature of the driest season, mean temperature of the warmest season, mean temperature of the coldest season, annual mean precipitation, precipitation of the wettest month, precipitation of the driest month, coefficient of variance of precipitation, precipitation of the wettest season, precipitation of the driest season, precipitation of the warmest season and precipitation of the coldest season) and 4 environmental factors (elevation, slope, slope aspect and vegetation coverage) on the potential distribution of H. longicornis were assessed using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on the H. longicornis distribution data and climatic and environmental data, and the potential distribution of H. longicornis was predicted under the RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Results　Among the environmental and climatic factors affecting the geographical distribution of H. longicornis in China, the factors contributing more than 10% to the distribution of H. longicornis mainly included the precipitation of the driest month (26.0%), annual mean temperature (11.2%), annual mean precipitation (10.0%) and elevation (24.2%). Under the current climate pattern, the high⁃, medium⁃ and low⁃suitable habitats of H. longicornis are 1 231 900, 1 696 200 km2 and 1 854 400 km2 in China, respectively. The distribution of H. longicornis increased by 336 100 km2 and 367 300 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 2.6 emissions scenario, and increased by 381 000 km2 and 358 000 km2 in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario in China, respectively. Conclusions　Climatic and environmental factors, such as precipitation, temperature and elevation, greatly affect the distribution of H. longicornis in China, and the suitable habitats of H. longicornis may expand in China under different climate patterns in future.