2011—2020 年马鞍山市血吸虫病病情空间聚集性分析

目的 分析 2011—2020 年马鞍山市血吸虫病病情空间聚集特征,为制定防治对策提供参考依据。 方法 以流行村为单位,建立 2011—2020 年马鞍山市人群血吸虫病血清学检查空间数据库。 采用核密度估计法、空间自相关分析,找出空间聚集性分布特征。 结果 2011—2020 年马鞍山市人群血吸虫病血检阳性率整体呈下降趋势,各年度间差异有统计学意义( χ2 = 5. 139,P<0. 01)。 核密度分析显示,湖阳镇东南部和东部区域在“十二五”和“十三五”期间均为血检阳性高、中密度区域;而江心乡、黄池河以及石臼湖北侧等原高、中密度区域,在“十三五”转为低密度区。 全局 Moran’s I 指数提示,2011—2020 年马鞍山市人群血检阳性率均存空间聚集性。 局部热点分析显示,“十二五”和“十三五”期间,和县、花山区和雨山区部分沿江流行村以及江心乡、湖阳镇均是热点聚集区域;“十三五”期间当涂县大公圩夹河出现热点区域,和县沿江热点区域增多。 结论 2011—2020 年马鞍山市血吸虫病病情呈现明显正向空间自相关和聚集性,但聚集区域有所变化。

Spatial clustering analysis of schistosomiasis prevalence in Ma’anshan City from 2011 to 2020

Objective To analyze the spatial clustering characteristics of schistosomiasis prevalence in Ma’ anshan from 2011 to 2020 for evidences to develop prevention and control measures. Methods Between 2011 and 2020,spatial database of serological examination in population in Ma’anshan area were established based on the endemic village. Kernel density analysis,Moran' s Iindex,and Getis-Ord Gi? index were used for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results The positive rate of schistosomiasis antibody in population in Ma’ anshan was declined overall from 2011 to 2020, and dissimilar in different years ( χ2 = 5. 139,P<0. 01). Kernel density estimation showed that southeastern and eastern areas in Huyang Town were the medium-high density area with positive blood test in periods of the 12th and the 13th Five-Year Plan,yet the former medium-high density areas,including Jiangxin Town,Huangchi River and north region of Shijiu Lake, were changed into low density areas in the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan. The global Moran's I indicated that the positive rate by blood test in population in Ma’ anshan City were spatially clustered from 2011 to 2020. Local hotspot analysis showed that Jiangxin Town,Huyang Town,and some endemic villages along Yangtze River,including Hexian County,Huashan District and Yushan District were hotspot gathering areas during the periods of the 12th and the 13th Five-Year Plan. And in the 13th Five Year Plan period,hotspot appeared gathered in areas along Dagongweijia river in Dangtu County,and was expanded in areas along the Yangtze River within Hexian county. Conclusion There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation and clustering for schistosomiasis prevalence in Ma’anshan area between 2011 and 2020,yet the clustering area tends to change during that period.