Logistic 微分方程模型在结核病疫情预警中的应用

目的 利用 Logistic 微分方程模型进行结核病传播预测,为结核病早期防控特别提供新方法。 方法 对 Logistic 微分方程模型的原理、疫情加速关键点计算、优缺点等进行分析,以厦门市报告数据为例开展模拟研究。 结果 厦门市自 2005-2018 年来结核病高发,存在明显的冬春季节流行高峰。 通过 Logistic 微分方程拟合结果较好,疫 情加速期为每年第 1 或第 2 个月。 结论 Logistic 微分方程模型能较好地反映结核病“疫情加速时间”和“建议预警 时间”,以及疫情变化的时间点,对于基层开展结核病预警防控工作,具有较好的参考意义。

Logistic differential equation model and its application in warning tuberculosis

Objective To apply the logistic differential equation(LDE)model to predicting the spread of tuberculosis for a new method in early prevention and control of tuberculosis.Methods The principle of LDE model,calculation of the critical points at accelerated epidemic,advantages and disadvantages were analyzed,and simulation investigation was performed on the data reported in Xiamen City basis.Results Tuberculosis was highly prevalent in Xiamen from 2005 to 2018,typically characterized by wave in winter and spring seasons.LDE model resulted in well fitting to the prevalence.Acceleration of the epidemic was identified in the first or the second month of the previous years.Conclusion LDE model can better reflect the acceleration trend and initiation of warning of tuberculosis prevalence in early stage as well as the changing point of the epidemic,which should be a better tool for health workers in prevention,control and warning of tuberculosis on grass-root levels.