Caprini风险评估模型对高龄慢性心力衰竭患者深静脉血栓形成的预测价值

目的 分析Caprini风险评估模型用于预测高龄慢性心力衰竭患者深静脉血栓形成(DVT)的价值。方法 选取2018年1月至2020年12月首都医科大学附属北京世纪坛医院心血管内科诊治的高龄慢性心力衰竭合并DVT患者共44例作为病例组(DVT组),采用随机数表法选取同时期未患DVT的高龄慢性心力衰竭患者88例作为对照组。收集所有患者的临床资料,采用Caprini风险评估模型对所有患者进行评分及危险度分级。采用SPSS 18.0统计软件进行数据分析。采用logistic回归分析高龄慢性心力衰竭患者发生DVT的危险因素。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析Caprini风险评估模型对高龄慢性心力衰竭患者发生DVT的诊断价值。结果 高龄慢性心力衰竭合并DVT患者的Caprini风险评估模型评分明显高于对照组[(7.77±1.96)和(5.77±1.36)分；P＜0.001]。多因素logistic回归分析显示,Caprini风险模型评分是高龄慢性心力衰竭患者DVT形成的独立危险因素(OR=1.733,95%CI 1.193~2.519;P＜0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示,Caprini风险评估模型预测高龄慢性心力衰竭患者发生DVT的曲线下面积为0.801(95%CI 0.723~0.879)。结论 Caprini风险评估模型对高龄慢性心力衰竭患者DVT发生风险具有良好的预测价值,可被应用于高龄慢性心力衰竭患者血栓形成风险评估。

Predictive value of Caprini risk assessment model for deep venous thrombosis in very old patients with chronic heart failure

Objective To analyze the value of Caprini risk assessment model in the prediction of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in very old patients with chronic heart failure. Methods A total of 44 elderly patients with chronic heart failure and DVT who were treated in our department from January 2018 to December 2020 were enrolled as the DVT group, and another 88 elderly patients with chronic heart failure but without DVT during the same period served as the control group. The clinical data of all patients were collected, and all of them were evaluated with Caprini risk assessment model for scoring and risk classification. SPSS statistics 18.0 was used for data analysis. Logistic regression analysis was employed to analyze the risk factors for DVT in elderly patients with chronic heart failure. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to analyze the diagnostic value of Caprini risk assessment model for DVT in elderly patients with chronic heart failure. Results The Caprini score was significantly higher in the DVT group than the control group [(7.77±1.96) vs (5.77±1.36), P<0.001]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Caprini score was the independent risk factor for DVT in elderly patients with chronic heart failure (OR=1.733, 95%CI 1.193-2.519, P<0.05). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for Caprini risk assessment model was 0.801 in the prediction of DVT in elderly patients with chronic heart failure (95%CI 0.723-0.879). Conclusion The Caprini risk assessment model has a good predictive value for DVT in elderly patients with chronic heart failure, and can be used to assess the risk of thrombosis for them.