上海市闵行区结核病预警模式基线调查分析

目的 了解闵行区结核病流行现况和特点，建立队列观察人群，为结核病预警模式的建立及验证提供科学依据。 方法 根据“十一五”传染病重大专项“结核病预警模式研究”项目要求，采取前瞻性现场流行病学研究,选取莘庄镇为现场实施点，采取整群抽样方法，以莘庄镇户籍人口121 898名居民为调查对象，分析人群肺结核可疑症状者和肺结核患者的流行特征，对不同人群患病情况进行卡方检验，P<0.05为差异有统计学意义。 结果 莘庄镇共调查户籍人口120 637名居民(男61 055名,女59 582名),受检率为98.97%（120 637/121 898），发现结核病可疑者551例（可疑症状者194例，既往有肺结核病史者357例），现患肺结核16例，可疑者经进一步检查1例确诊为肺结核。莘庄镇结核病患病率为14.09/10万（17/120 637），涂阳患者11例，其中新涂阳为6例。患者以男性为主(13例)，男性患病率为21.29/10万（13/61 055），明显高于女性（6.71/10万,4/59 582），两者间差异有统计学意义（χ²=4.549，P=0.049）；55~65岁年龄组患病率最高（38.68/10万，8/20 681），55岁及以上人群患病率为29.64/10万(11/37 113)，明显高于０～55岁人群患病率（7.18/10万，6/83 524），两者间差异有统计学意义（χ²=9.196，P=0.004）。 结论 基线调查结果显示闵行区结核病疫情相对较低，患者以男性为主，老年人患病率较高。

Analysis on baseline investigation for the establishment of early warning models of tuberculosis in Minhang district,Shanghai

Objective To understand the epidemic status and characteristics of tuberculosis （TB） in Minhang district, Shanghai, to build the observed cohort and provide scientific basis for the development and validation of the early warning model of TB. Methods According to the requirement of the project ＂Study on the early warning models of tuberculosis＂, one of the 11th five-year major projects for infectious disease. Xinzhuang town was selec-ted. Prospective epidemiological method was used to investigate the residents selected through cluster sampling. 121 898 residents were selected as research subject to analyze their epidemic characteristics of people with suspicious TB symptoms and TB patients. Chi-square test was used to analyze the prevalence rates of different groups and 0.05 was set as the criteria of statistical significance. Results 120 637 residents were investigated （61 055 males and 59 582 females）, and the survey rate was 98.97% （120 637/121 898）. 551 TB suspects, including 194 people with at least one suspicious symptom and 357 people with a history of TB, and 16 TB cases were detected. After further examination, 1 TB suspect was diagnosed as TB. The prevalence rate of TB in Xinzhuang town was 14.09/100 000 （17/120 637）. The proportion of smear positive cases was 11/17, and that of new smear positive cases was 6/17. The majority of patients were male 13/17 and the prevalence in male was 21.29/100 000 （13/61 055）, which was significantly higher than that in female （6.71/100 000, 4/59 582） （χ2=4.549, P=0.049）. The highest prevalence rate appeared in the 55-65 age group （38.68/100 000, 8/20 681） and the prevalence rate of people aged 55 years and above was 29.64/100 000 （11/37 113）, which was greater than that aged under 55 years （7.18/100 000, 6/83 524）, and there was significant difference between 2 groups （χ2=9.196, P=0.004）. Conclusion Baseline survey indicated that, the epidemic situation of TB is relatively mild in Minhang district compared with other districts. The majority of patients are male and the higher prevalence rate appears in elderly.