中国人口老龄化对居民医疗卫生支出的影响研究

在人口老龄化的背景下,如何控制医疗费用、促进健康老龄化已经成为世界性难题。本文通过实证研究分析中国人口老龄化对医疗卫生支出的影响机制,为医疗和养老政策的制定提供参考。面板门槛效应模型的回归结果显示,中国人口老龄化对居民医疗卫生支出的影响与城镇化水平有关。城镇化水平存在双重门槛效应,当城镇化水平低于第二个门槛值,人口老龄化显著地减少了医疗卫生支出;当城镇化水平高于第二个门槛值,人口老龄化对医疗卫生支出的影响机制发生改变,显著地增加了医疗卫生支出。因此,如何在城镇化进程中增进老年人口的社会福祉是控制医疗费用、促进健康老龄化的关键。

Analysis on the influence of aging population on healthcare expenditure of residents in China

Under the background of aging population, how to control healthcare expenditure and promote healthy aging has captured increasing global attention as a serious problem. This paper empirically analyzes the impact mechanism of China''s population aging on healthcare expenditure through, and provides reference for the formulation of medical and elderly care policies. The regression results of the panel threshold effect model showed that the impact of Chinese aging on Residents'' healthcare expenditure has close relationship with the level of urbanization. The level of urbanization has double threshold effect, namely, when it is lower and when it is higher than the second threshold value, respectively. When the level of urbanization is lower than the second threshold value, the healthcare expenditure significantly reduces with the aging of the population; on the contrary, when the level of urbanization is higher than the second threshold value, the influence of the aging population on the healthcare expenditure changes the mechanism and healthcare expenditure significantly increases. Therefore, knowing how to improve the social welfare of the elderly in the process of urbanization is the key to control healthcare expenditure and promote healthy aging.