福建省人群恶性肿瘤谱变化的定量研究

目的 通过对福建省1973-1975年和2010-2011年的人群恶性肿瘤死亡率的定量分解,找出恶性肿瘤死亡谱变化的主要影响因素,为疾病预防控制决策提供依据.方法 应用死亡率差别分解法对2个年代恶性肿瘤死亡率进行定量分解,计算不同部位恶性肿瘤死亡率变化由人口因素和非人口因素引起的比例.结果 2010-2011年福建省人群恶性肿瘤粗死亡率（157.78/10万）较1973-1975年（91.37/10万）上升,而标化死亡率下降,2010-2011年和1973-1975年标化死亡率分别为94.74/10万和101.08/10万.胃癌从1973-1975年的首位降至2010-2011年的第3位；食管癌从第2位降至第4位；肝癌从第3位升至首位,肺癌从第5位上升至第2位.人口因素影响不同部位恶性肿瘤死亡率的升高；非人口因素影响肺癌、肠癌、肝癌、乳腺癌、白血病、膀胱癌6种恶性肿瘤死亡率升高,而促使其余4种恶性肿瘤死亡率下降.结论 肺癌、肝癌、胃癌、食管癌和肠癌为福建省恶性肿瘤预防与控制的重点.

A quantitative study on changes of malignant tumors death spectrum for population in Fujian Province

Objective To explore the main influence factors on the changes of malignant tumors death spectrum during 1973- 1975 and 2010-2011 in Fujian Province and to offer the proposal for future disease control and prevention. Methods The mortalities of malignant tumors were quantitatively decomposed to calculate the proportion of contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors to the malignant tumors mortalities. Results The crude mortalities （ 157.78/105） of malignant tumors in Fujian Province during 2010-2011 were higher than those （91.37/10^5） during 1973-1975, while the age-standardized mortalities during 2010-201 lwere lower than those during 1973-1975. The rank of gastric cancer mortality decreased from the 1st to the 3rd while the rank of esophageal cancer mortality declined from the 2rd to the 4th. The rank of liver cancer mortality elevated from the 3rd to the 1st, while the rank of lung cancer ascended from the 5th to the 2rd. The demographic factors contributed to the increase of some malignant mortalities. However, non-demographic factors reduced the mortalities of other four malignant tumors, except for lung cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, leukemia and bladder cancer. Conclusion Lung cancer, liver cancer, gastric cancer, esophageal cancer and colorectal cancer would become the key points in malignant tumors control and prevention in Fujian Province.