决策树在天津市某区公务员健康状况影响因素分析中的应用

目的了解天津市某区公务员健康状况的影响因素,为提高该人群的健康水平提供依据。方法于2008年9-12月,采用整群抽样的方法抽取天津市某区部分公务员,发放问卷740份,进行健康状况和相关影响因素的问卷调查。利用705份有效问卷,应用SAS8.2 Enterprise Miner模块建立决策树模型,对该区公务员人群的健康状况影响因素进行分析和预测。结果该区公务员总体患病率为47.0%,患病率较高的前4种疾病为高血压(17.87%),高血脂(17.73%),脂肪肝(15.89%),颈、腰椎疾病(12.77%)。决策树筛检出的健康状况影响危险因素(重要性)包括年龄大(1.0000)、吸烟(0.8359)、不按时吃饭(0.7972)、心理健康分值低(0.5860)、体质指数高(0.4748)、被动吸烟(0.3673)、教育系统公务员(0.2876)、文化程度高(0.2832)、饮酒(0.1365);保护性因素(重要性)包括充足的睡眠时间(0.3873)、充足的体育锻炼时间(0.2845)、女性(0.2636)、亚健康分值低(0.2364)。决策树模型ROC曲线下面积为0.8881(95%CI:0.8643～0.9119),预测的准确度为80%。结论公务员人群健康状况不容乐观,各种慢性病患病率较高,是今后开展健康管理的重点群体。

The Application of Decision Tree in the Study of Health Status and its Influential Factors among the Government Employee in a District of Tianjin

Objective To comprehend the health status and its influential factors of health status among government employee in a district of Tianjin. Methods The objects were obtained from a district by cluster sampling method during September to December, 2008. 705 valid questionnaires from 740 subjects were collected and used to established decision tree model by SAS8.2 Enterprise Miner. Their health status and the influential factors were analyzed and predicted. Results The total prevalence rate was 47.0%, and the top four diseases among them were hypertension（ 17.87% ）, high blood lipid （ 17.73% ）, fatty liver （ 15.89% ）, neck and lumbar disease （ 12.77% ）. The main risk factors for health status by the decision tree analysis were as follows： age（1.000 0）, smoking（0.835 9）, the situation of regular meals（0.797 2）, mental health scores（0.586 0）, BMI（0.474 8 ）, passive smoking （0.367 3 ）, occupation （0.287 6）, education （0.283 2）, and alcohol drinking （0.136 5 ） ; protective factors and importance were sleep time （0.387 3 ）, sport time （0.284 5）, gender（0.263 6）, sub-health scores （0.236 4）. The forecast accuracy of decision tree was 80%, the area under the ROC curve was 0.8881 （95% Ch 0.864 3-0.911 9）. Conclusion The health conditions of government employee were far from ideal for some chronic diseases. The health management should be emphasized in those personals in the future.