中国卫生总费用历史回顾和发展预测

为了配合国务院有关部门开展中国卫生筹资发展研究，中国卫生总费用核算小组组织人力进行《中国卫生总费用历史回顾和发展预测》。我们的研究工作包括以下４个部分：１．对历史上积累的数据按照目前的计算口径作出调整和修匀；２．利用历史数据从卫生服务需求和卫生筹资提供能力两个角度进行时间序列影响因素分析；３．利用从各方面收集到的数据和科学判断，按照供求两组时间序列经济模型对１９９９￣２００２年和２０１０年卫生总费

A History Review and Development Forecasting of the Total Expenditures of Health in China

A History Review and Development Forecasting of the Total Expenditures of Health (TEH) in China was carried out by the taskforce of national health account of China, to coordinate a research of China health financing carried out by some agencies in the State Council of China. There are four section in our research: 1.The data accumulated were revised and smoothed according to the current estimated boundary of TEH.; 2.A time series factor analysis was conducted utilizing the history data, from two points of view: the demand of health service and the the providing capacity of health fund. 3.A TEH development forecasting from 1999 to 2002, and from 2000 to 2010 was carried out utilizing the data collected from every sectors and some knowledgeable judgement, according to two econometrics models of time series data of TEH in China. 4.Some policy suggestions from two points of view (the payable demand of health service and the providing capacity of health fund) were pointed out according to above mentioned TEH development forecasting. We suggest that, to enlarge the domestic payable demand of health service, it is not only essential but also potential. lt is possible absolutely to maintain the balance between the effective demand of health service and the providing capacity of health fund timely, if we have corrective policy of macro supervision and direction. lt is needed the support of a scientific macro economic information system to design the corrective policy of macro supervision and direction. So, it is essential to strengthen further the Program of Health Account in China.