中国男男性行为人群HIV新发感染率和相关危险因素的Meta分析

目的 描述中国男男性行为(MSM)人群HIV新发感染率水平。方法 采用Meta分析方法对2010年1月至2015年2月公开发表的MSM人群HIV新发感染率相关研究进行汇总和定量分析;采用Stata 12.0软件进行异质性检验及合并新发感染率、发病风险比、计算发表偏倚和敏感性分析。结果 共纳入24篇队列研究文献。中国MSM人群HIV新发感染率为5.0/100人年; 病例报告疫情重的城市相对于其他城市HIV新发感染率较高(4.9/100人年 vs. 3.4/100人年)。文化程度低(HR=1.61,95%CI:1.21~2.15)、梅毒感染(HR=3.22,95%CI:2.21~4.70)、无保护性肛交(HR=2.92,95%CI:1.51~5.63)、少数民族(HR=4.01,95%CI:1.96~8.21)、商业性行为(HR=4.11,95%CI:1.47~11.46)和多性伴(HR=2.31,95%CI:1.60~3.34)均为MSM人群HIV新发感染的危险因素。结论 中国MSM人群HIV新发感染率为5.0%,文化程度低、梅毒感染、无保护性肛交、民族、商业性行为和多性伴是MSM人群HIV新发感染的危险因素。

Meta-analysis of HIV infection incidence and risk factors among men who have sex with men in China

Objective To understand the incidence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Methods Meta-analysis was performed to systematically and quantitatively review all the original research papers and reports published during 2010-2015 on the incidence of HIV infection among MSM in China. Pooled incidence, pooled hazard ratios, publication bias, heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis for those studies were calculated or analyzed by using Stata 12.0 software. Results A total of 24 studies were analyzed. Pooled incidence of HIV infection among MSM in China was 5.0/100 person year; Based on HIV case report, severe epidemic areas had higher HIV incidence than other areas (4.9/100 person year vs. 3.4/100 person year). Low education level(HR=1.61, 95%CI:1.21-2.15), syphilis prevalence(HR=3.22, 95%CI:2.21-4.70), unprotected anal sex(HR=2.92, 95%CI:1.51-5.63), minority ethnic group(HR=4.01, 95%CI:1.96-8.21), commercial sex(HR=4.11, 95%CI:1.47-11.46) and multiple sexual partners(HR=2.31, 95%CI:1.60-3.34) were the risk factors for HIV incidence. Conclusion Pooled incidence of HIV infection among MSM was 5.0% in China. Low education level, syphilis prevalence, unprotected anal sex, minority ethnic group, commercial sex and multiple sexual partners were the risk factors for HIV infection.