宁波市男男性行为人群艾滋病干预成本效果预测

目的 预测并比较宁波市MSM在不同艾滋病干预覆盖面下，投入成本与健康效果，为相关领域的资源配置和决策提供参考依据。方法 以MSM为目标人群，应用Optima HIV软件设计数据收集工具，测算不同干预覆盖水平下的艾滋病相关结局指标，并分析相应的经费预算。结果 2020年宁波市MSM规模估计数为19 584人，如果维持基线2020年干预服务水平，2021-2030年宁波市MSM中存活的HIV感染者数、HIV新发感染数和HIV相关死亡例数均呈上升趋势。如果在2020年基线的干预覆盖率水平上扩增至3.0倍，经费投入为基线的2.4倍，估计2021-2030年，累计可减少7.9%的HIV新发感染和1.7%的死亡；干预覆盖率继续扩增，HIV新发感染人数不再减少。结论 扩大基线2020年宁波MSM艾滋病干预覆盖和增加资金投入，能够降低HIV相关死亡人数和新发感染人数，但存在干预效果的饱和点。为获得较好的艾滋病相关结局指标，有关研究者和政策决策者需要探寻更加有效的干预措施和组合。

Cost-effectiveness prediction of AIDS interventions among men who have sex with men in Ningbo

Objective To provide information reference for resource allocation and decision-making in related fields, the cost-effectiveness of HIV input among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ningbo. Different intervention coverages were compared. Methods Taking MSM as the target population, data were collected and modeled by Optima HIV for the corresponding HIV health output and the budget under different intervention coverages. Results According to the estimated size of the MSM population, which was 19 584 in Ningbo in 2020, if the coverage of 2020 baseline intervention is maintained in the next ten years, the number of HIV cases, new HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among this population will show an upward trend. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2030, 7.9% of new infections and 1.7% of deaths can be avoided and the relevant funding investment comed to 2.4 time the baseline if the intervention coverage rate expanded to 3.0 times the 2020 baseline. After the coverage rate of intervention expanded to 3 times the baseline, it continued to grow, the health effect did not increase. Conclusions At present, expanding the baseline coverage of HIV-related intervention projects among MSM in Ningbo and increasing capital investment will still reverse HIV-related death and reduce new infections. Moreover, there is a saturation point of the intervention effect. Researchers and policymakers must explore more effective interventions/combinations to obtain more significant health outcomes.