北京市1984～1999年人群脑卒中发病率变化趋势分析

目的：评估北京市城区1984－1999年16年间急性脑卒中发病率的变化趋势及强度。方法：采用世界卫生组织心血管病趋势及其决定因素的监测方案（monitoring of trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases,简称WHO MONICA方案）中北京市城区心血管病人群监测及后续研究的资料，逐年计算急性脑卒中事件发作粗率，年龄标化发作率和首发发病粗率，年龄标化首发发病率，用线性回归方法分析发病率的变化趋势和年平均变化幅度，分析各年龄组发病专率的变化状态。结果：（1）北京市1984－1999年急性脑卒中事件的发作率和首发发病率均呈明显的上升趋势，男性年平均增长幅度分别为4．5％和4．1％，女性均为4．2％，（2）65－岁和70－74岁老年组发病率增加尤为明显；（3）1999年北京市65岁及以上老年人口的比较为10．3％，已逐渐步入老龄化社会。结论：北京市脑卒中的发病率呈明显上升趋势。老年组增加更为明显，随着人口的老龄化，人群中脑卒中病人的绝对数增加，应加强脑卒中的一级预防和二级预防。

The trend of incidence rate of acute stroke event in urban areas,Beijing from 1984 to 1999

Objective To estimate the trend of incidence rate of acute stroke event in the population aged 25 74 in urban areas of Beijing from 1984 to 1999. Methods All stroke events in defined population were ascertained and validated according to unified protocol and criteria. A total number of 6 553 stroke events were analyzed, crude rates and aged standardized rates for all stroke events and first ever stroke events were calculated for whole calendar years for the population. Temporal annual rates of stroke were estimated for 16 years. Results Annual stroke attack rates increased both in men and women with an average annual percentage changes 4.5 % and 4.2 %, respectively. Annual first ever stroke incidence rate increased both in men and women with average annual percentage changes 4.1 % and 4.2 %, respectively. Most remarkable increase was noticed in the 65 69 and 70 74 age groups. Conclusion Rates of stroke attack incidence and first ever incidence were increasing in the population of urban in Beijing, indicating the prevention of stroke be strengthened in the area.