全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对我国的输入风险评估

目的 评估全球新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情对我国的输入风险。方法 基于收集的疫情数据（各国家每日累计确诊病例数、境外输入病例累计确诊病例数）、人口学数据（各国人口密度、人口数）、旅客潜在来源群体信息（华侨华人常住人口数、在外中国留学生数、海外务工人员数、来华留学生数、航班旅客数估计）和全球健康安全指数（GHS）等信息，进行近期（2月1日－4月25日）和未来（4月26日－）风险分析及预测，构建输入风险得分。结果 各国境外输入病例数、累计确诊数、罹患率、华侨华人数、境外留学生数、来华留学生数、航班乘客数和GHS变量间有较强的正相关性。近期风险分析中，俄罗斯输入病例明显较高，英国、美国、法国、西班牙次之。在未来风险预测中，通过各国罹患率指数和平均每日入境乘客数估计值两项信息，评估美国、新加坡等44个国家为未来潜在高风险国家。结论 通过COVID-19疫情各国家输入风险评估，可以识别近期及未来的高风险区域，为加强疫情防控，为最终战胜疫情提高帮助。

Risk assessment of global COVID-19 imported cases into China

Objective To assess the risk of COVID-19 foreign imports cases to China. Methods We collected epidemic data (cumulative daily confirmed cases in each country, cumulative confirmed imported cases), demographic data (population density, population) and information on potential source groups of tourists (the daily estimated number of overseas Chinese, overseas Chinese students, overseas workers, foreign students coming to China and flight passengers) and the global health security index (GHS) to assess and predict risk of imported cases for recent (February 1st to April 25th) and future (after April 26th). Results Strong positive correlation was found among variables including the number of imported cases, cumulative confirmed cases, attack rate, number of overseas Chinese, number of overseas Chinese students, number of foreign students coming to China, number of flight passengers and GHS. In the recent risk analysis, imported cases of Russian were the highest, followed by United Kingdom, United States, France and Spain. In the future risk prediction, 44 countries including United States and Singapore are evaluated as potential high-risk countries in the future through the attack rate index of each country and the estimated average number of daily passengers. Conclusion The risk assessment of COVID-19 imported cases can be used to identify high-risk areas in recent and future, and might be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic and ultimately overcome the epidemic.