Knox方法在传染病时空聚集性探测中的应用

目的探讨Knox方法在传染病时空聚集性探测中的应用。方法介绍Knox方法的原理，以2005年45月北京市流行性脑脊髓膜炎（流脑）病例为例，介绍其统计分析过程并解释结果。结果在选定时间临界值13d和空间临界值29．67km时，流脑可能存在时空聚集性。选取其他时间和空间临界值，均无时空聚集性。结论在根据传染病的特点并选择合适的时间与空间临界值的条件下，Knox方法能够较好地探测传染病的时空聚集性，对原因不明的疾病可以根据不同的临界时间和临界空间“诊断”其是否有传染性，因此对传染病早期预警有一定作用。

Study on the application of Knox method to temporal-spatial cluster for infectious diseases

Objective Application of Knox method was discussed in exploring temporal-spatial cluster for infectious diseases. Methods The theory of Knox method was introduced in detail. As an example, the temporal-spatial cluster of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis cases from April to May in 2005 was explored in Beijing and the statistical process of Knox method was clearly demonstrated with related results well interpreted. Results Only when time and distance threshold values were set as 13 days and 29.67 kin, potential temporal-spatial cluster could be detected in epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis cases. Conclusion According to the characteristics of the epidemics, under Knox method, if appropriate threshold values of time and distance were chosen, information on temporal-spatial cluster of infectious diseases could be obtained. According to the records of different time and distance threshold values, the nature of an infectious disease might be explored. Thus Knox method could help us to strengthen the early warning system on infectious disease control strategy.