传染病暴发探测时间模型和时空模型的应用效果比较

目的 比较国家传染病自动预警系统(预警系统)中时间模型与时空模型在传染病暴发探测中的应用效果.方法 采用预警信号数、灵敏度、错误预警率和暴发探测时间等指标,分析比较2009年12月6日至2010年12月5日预警系统在20个省的221个试点县(区)采用时间模型和时空模型进行暴发探测的效果.结果 时间模型和时空模型灵敏度相同(均为98.15%),但时空模型较时间模型减少了59.86%(15 702条)的预警信号,时空模型的错误预警率(0.73%)低于时间模型(1.79%),时空模型的暴发探测时间(0d)也短于时间模型(1 d).结论 预警系统中的时空模型较时间模型具有更好的暴发探测效果.

Comparison on the performance of both temporal and temporal-spatial models for outbreak detection through China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System(CIDARS)

Objective To analyze the pilot results of both temporal and temporal-spatial models in outbreaks detection in China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS)to further improve the system. Methods The amount of signal, sensitivity, false alarm rate and time to detection regarding these two models of CIDARS, were analyzed from December 6,2009 to December 5,2010 in 221 pilot counties of 20 provinces. Results The sensitivity of these two models was equal(both 98.15%). However, when comparing to the temporal model, the temporal-spatial model had a 59.86% reduction on the signals(15 702)while the false alarm rate of the temporal-spatial model(0.73%)was lower than the temporal model(1.79%), and the time to detection of the temporal-spatial model(0 day)was also 1 day shorter than the temporal model.Conclusion Comparing to the temporal model, the temporal-spatial model of CIDARS seemed to be better performed on outbreak detection.