基于动态基本再生数的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情防控现状评估

目的 对全国各省份的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情防控现状进行分析,建立预测模型预估现有防控措施预期成效,为决策部门提供科学信息。方法 基于COVID-19疫情网络公开数据,估计全国、各省份以及武汉市不同时间基本再生数(R0)的动态变化R₀(t),以评估在现有防控措施下,COVID-19传染速率随时间变化的趋势,预估现有防控措施的预期成效。结果 从结果稳定性考虑,选择累积确诊病例数>100例的地区进行分析,共24个省份纳入分析。在疫情初期,全国整体R₀(t)不稳定,数值较大,误差也较大。随着防控措施的进一步加强,R₀(t)普遍在1月下旬开始呈现下降趋势,2月始下降趋势稳定。截至数据分析日,纳入分析的24个省份中已有18个省份(75%)R₀(t)降到1以下。这为有条件地开放人员流动提供了信息。结论 动态R₀(t)有助于动态评估COVID-19传染速率变化情况,本次疫情防控措施已初显成效,如能继续保持,全国疫情有望短期内得到全面控制。

Dynamic basic reproduction number based evaluation for current prevention and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China

Objective To evaluate the current status of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in China, establish a predictive model to evaluate the effects of the current prevention and control strategies, and provide scientific information for decision-making departments. Methods Based on the epidemic data of COVID-19 openly accessed from national health authorities, we estimated the dynamic basic reproduction number R₀(t) to evaluate the effects of the current COVID-19 prevention and control strategies in all the provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) as well as in Wuhan and the changes in infectivity of COVID-19 over time. Results For the stability of the results, 24 provinces (municipality) with more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were included in the analysis. At the beginning of the outbreak, the R₀(t) showed unstable trend with big variances. As the strengthening of the prevention and control strategies, R₀(t) began to show a downward trend in late January, and became stable in February. By the time of data analysis, 18 provinces (municipality) (75%) had the R₀(t)s less than 1. The results could be used for the decision making to free population floating conditionally. Conclusions Dynamic R₀(t) is useful in the evaluation of the change in infectivity of COVID-19, the prevention and control strategies for the COVID-19 outbreak have shown preliminary effects, if continues, it is expected to control the COVID-19 outbreak in China in near future.