湖北省2010-2013年艾滋病时空分布特征分析

目的 了解2010-2013年湖北省HIV/AIDS的时空分布特征,为艾滋病防控提供科学依据。方法 采用GeoDa软件进行空间自相关分析,采用SatScan 9.2软件进行时空扫描统计分析,最后运用地理信息系统实现结果的可视化。结果 2010-2013年湖北省累计报告HIV/AIDS病例6 952例,累计报告病例数的全局Moran''s I指数为0.266,P<0.05,表明2010-2013年湖北省HIV/AIDS存在正向空间自相关。全局Moran''s I值在2010-2013年逐年增加,且P值均<0.05,说明2010-2013年湖北省HIV/AIDS全局空间聚集性呈上升趋势。局部相关自相关分析发现湖北省艾滋病“高高”聚集区主要位于武汉市,2010-2013年聚集区数目逐年增加,且从武汉市区向周边县区扩散。时空扫描分析显示武汉、黄石、鄂州、咸宁的19个区（县）为一级时空聚集区,时间跨度为2012-2013年,辐射半径为60.01 km（LLR=625.14,RR=3.23）,结果具有统计学意义。结论 2010-2013年湖北省HIV/AIDS空间变化具有规律性,全局空间聚集性逐年增强,“高高”聚集区从武汉市区逐年向周边区（县）扩散,武汉及其周边区（县）为湖北省近几年艾滋病防控的重点区域。

Spatial and temporal characteristics of HIV/AIDS in Hubei province, 2010-2013

Objective To understand the spatial and temporal distribution of HIV/AIDS in Hubei province, and provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of AIDS. Methods GeoDa software was used for autocorrelation analysis, SatScan 9.2 software was used for statistical analysis of spatial scanning, and finally geographic information system was used for visualization. Results A total of 6 952 HIV/AIDS cases were reported during 2010-2013 in Hubei, and the spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that Global Moran''s I index was 0.266 (P<0.05), indicating that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS. Global Moran''s I index increased year by year (P<0.05), indicating that the increased spatial aggregation of HIV/AIDS during 2010-2013. The local Moran''s I index showed that "high-high" clustering areas were in Wuhan, and the number of "high-high" clustering areas increased during 2010-2013. Moreover, the "high-high" clustering areas expanded from Wuhan to surrounding areas. Spatial and temporal scan analysis revealed that 19 counties in Wuhan, Huangshi, Ezhou, Xianning with a radius of 60.01 km (LLR=625.14, RR=3.23) were the main spatial and temporal clustering area during 2012-2013. Conclusion The spatial changes of HIV/AIDS seemed to be regular from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, spatial correlation at provincial level decreased and the "high-high" clustering areas gradually expanded from Wuhan to surrounding areas, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the AIDS prevention and control in these areas in Hubei.