中国2012-2014年肺结核病空间分布特征分析

目的 分析我国2012-2014年肺结核发病的空间分布模式,识别聚集区域,为肺结核防控提供理论依据。方法 应用地理信息系统（GIS）建立我国2012-2014年肺结核发病数据库,绘制空间分布地图,并进行趋势分析和空间自相关分析,探索其空间分布规律以及发病热点区域。结果 三维趋势分析图显示2012-2014年全国肺结核发病由西向东逐渐降低,在南北分布上呈微弱的"U"形分布;全局自相关结果显示,2012-2014年全局Moran''s I指数分别为0.366、0.364、0.358 （P<0.01）,提示我国肺结核发病在地域分布上存在空间聚集性;采用ArcGIS软件分析Getis-OrdGi局部热点,结果显示,肺结核发病存在11个聚集区域,其中3个为"热点"区域,分别为新疆、西藏、青海;8个为"冷点"区域,分别为北京、天津、上海、河北、内蒙古、山西、山东、江苏。结论 我国肺结核发病具有明显的空间聚集性,高危地区主要集中在西北部的新疆以及青藏高原地区。

Analysis on spatial distribution of tuberculosis in China, 2012-2014

Objective To analyze the spatial distribution of the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) in China from 2012 to 2014 and provide evidence for the prevention and control of TB. Methods The database of TB in China from 2012 to 2014 was established by using geographical information system, the spatial distribution map was drawn, trend analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted to explore the spatial distribution pattern of TB and identify hot areas. Results The trend surface analysis showed that the incidence of TB decreased gradually from the west to the east in China, and the U type curve could reflect the TB distribution from the south to the north; Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed the 2012-2014 global Moran''s I were 0.366, 0.364 and 0.358 (P<0.01), suggesting that the incidence of TB had a spatial clustering in China; Local Getis-OrdGi spatial autocorrelation analysis by ArcGIS software showed that there was 11 cluster areas, 3 high incidence areas (Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai) and 8 low incidence areas (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu). Conclusion The incidence of TB had obviously spatial clustering characteristic, the areas at high risk were mainly in the northwestern and plateau area in China.