湖南省1984-2015年血吸虫病流行趋势分析

目的 分析湖南省血吸虫病流行趋势，为控制和消除血吸虫病提供科学参考。方法 通过绘制动态趋势图分析1984-2015年湖南省居民及家畜血吸虫感染率变化规律；运用时间回归分析模型对血吸虫感染率进行拟合，并预测感染率近期变化趋势。结果 1984-2015年湖南省居民及家畜血吸虫感染率呈整体下降趋势，下降幅度分别为95.29%和95.16%。经直线回归模型拟合，该期间居民及家畜血吸虫感染率的实际值均处于预测值95% CI内；预计2016-2020年居民及家畜血吸虫感染率将继续下降。结论 湖南省血吸虫病疫情呈下降趋势。回归分析模型对血吸虫病疫情短期预测效果较好。

Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015

Objective To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Methods The changes of infection rates of Schistosoma (S.) japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S. japonicum, and predict the recent infection rate. Results The overall infection rates of S. japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.