2015-2020年四类重点慢性病对济南市户籍人口期望寿命的影响分析

目的 分析2015-2020年恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病（四类重点慢性病）对济南市户籍人口期望寿命增长的影响。方法 利用济南市2015-2020年死因监测资料和人口数据，应用简略寿命表和Arriaga分解法，分析2015-2020年四类重点慢性病及其具体病种的死亡率对期望寿命增长的贡献，不同性别、不同年龄段死亡率对期望寿命增长的贡献。结果 2015-2020年济南市户籍人口期望寿命增长了1.59岁。四类重点慢性病死亡率下降贡献了1.25岁，贡献比例为78.62%，男性期望寿命增长了1.66岁，四类重点慢性病死亡率下降贡献了1.18岁；女性期望寿命增长了1.52岁，四类重点慢性病死亡率下降贡献了1.35岁。恶性肿瘤、心脑血管疾病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和糖尿病的死亡水平下降对期望寿命的贡献分别为0.42、0.62、0.20和0.01岁。胃癌死亡率下降对期望寿命的贡献大于肺癌，高血压性心脏病死亡率增加导致了负贡献，哮喘和糖尿病对期望寿命的贡献微乎其微。结论 2015-2020年济南市户籍人口期望寿命增长主要由四类重点慢性病死亡率下降贡献。肺癌、糖尿病、高血压性心脏病等对期望寿命贡献较小，甚至为负贡献，应重点关注。

Analysis on impact of four major non-communicable diseases on life expectancy of local population in Ji'nan, 2015-2020

Objective To analyze the impact of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and diabetes (four major chronic diseases) on the increase of life expectancy of local population in Ji''nan during 2015-2020.Methods Based on 2015-2020 cause-of-death surveillance information and population data of Ji''nan, we used abbreviated life expectancy table and Arriaga decomposition method to analyze the overall and disease specific contributions of four major chronic diseases to the increase of life expectancy, and the gender and age specific contributions of mortality rates of four major chronic diseases to the increase of life expectancy of local population from 2015 to 2020. Results Life expectancy of the local population in Ji''nan increased by 1.59 years from 2015 to 2020. The decline in mortality rates of the four major chronic diseases contributed 1.25 years, with a contribution of 78.62%. The life expectancy in men increased by 1.66 years, with a contribution of 1.18 years from the decline in mortality rate of four major chronic diseases, and the life expectancy in women increased by 1.52 years, with a contribution of 1.35 years from the decline in mortality of four major chronic diseases. The declines in the mortality rates of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and diabetes contributed 0.42, 0.62, 0.20, and 0.01 years to life expectancy, respectively. The decline mortality rate of gastric cancer contributed more to the increase of life expectancy compared with lung cancer. The increase in the mortality rate of hypertensive heart disease resulted in a negative contribution. Asthma and diabetes contributed very little to the increase of life expectancy.Conclusions The increase in the life expectancy of local population in Ji''nan from 2015 to 2020 was mainly attributed to the decline in mortality of four major chronic diseases. It is necessary to pay close attention to the diseases which contributed very little or even had negative contribution to the increase of life expectancy, such as lung cancer, diabetes and hypertensive heart disease.