累积和控制图法在传染病暴发探测中的应用

近年来,为提高传染病暴发早期发现能力,许多学者开展了基于各种传染病监测数据源的暴发早期探测方法研究,期望通过采用适当的数学算法,对疾病监测数据进行分析,从而早期发现疾病与症状发生的异常增加或聚集性.本文介绍了一种国外广泛应用于传染病监测数据异常探测的统计过程控制方法--累积和(CUSUM)控制图法,对其基本原理与特征、方法设计要点,以及在传染病暴发探测中应用的典型案例进行了深入分析,从而为在我国传染病预警领域推广应用该方法提供参考与借鉴.

Application of cumulative sum control chart algorithm in the detection of infectious disease outbreaks

In recent years, for improving the ability of early detection on infectious disease outbreak, many researchers study the disease outbreak detection algorithms, based on many disease surveillance data, expecting to detect the abnormal increasing and cluster of disease and symptom at an early stage by adopting appropriate algorithm. This paper introduces a cumulative sum control chart method, one of statistical process control algorithms widely used in foreign countries and describes its basic principle and characteristic, key points of design, typical examples in application of disease outbreak detection of cumulative sum method, with expect to provide reference for its application in studies of disease outbreak early warning in China.