利用ARIMA模型对2007—2011年四川口岸出境人员中HBsAg阳性疫情分析和预测

目的应用差分自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model,ARIMA),分析和预测四川口岸出境人员中乙肝表面抗原(HBsAg)阳性疫情,为制定防治对策和措施提供科学依据。方法利用2007年—2011年四川国际旅行卫生保健中心出境人员HBsAg逐月监测数据,使用SAS9.1统计软件,建立ARIMA模型。结果ARIMA(0,1,1()0,1,1)12模型较好地拟合了既往时间段上的阳性检出率序列,各参数估计均有统计学意义,用该模型进行回代预测,预测检出率与实际检出率吻合程度较高。结论ARIMA模型可用于四川口岸出境人员HBsAg阳性检出率的动态分析和短期预测。

Analysis and prediction on epidemic situation of HBsAg positive among exit personnel at Sichuan ports by the ARIMA Mode

Objective To analyze and predict the epidemic situation of HBsAg positive among exit personnel at Sichuan ports by the ARIMA model, and to provide scientific evidence for control and prevention of disease. Methods The ARIMA model was set up based on the HBsAg positive epidemic monitoring data of exit personnel in Sichuan international travel healthcare center during 2007-2011. Results The time series of HBsAg positive epidemic accorded with ARIMA（0, 1,1）（0, 1, l）,z model. The difference of the parametes was statistically significant. The predicted rate had better accord with the observed rate. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze and predict the HBsAg positive epidemic situation of outbound personnel in short-term future.