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用时间序列分析法进行尘肺流行预测研究
引用本文:王文勇,CHEN Zheng,陈征.用时间序列分析法进行尘肺流行预测研究[J].中国职业医学,2001,28(2):27-29.
作者姓名:王文勇  CHEN Zheng  陈征
作者单位:1. 福建省劳动卫生职业病研究所,
2. Fujian Institute of Labor Health and Occupational Diseases,
3. 江西省计算中心,
摘    要:目的 对尘肺的历史流行和中长期预测进行研究。方法 采用线性趋势分析、逐步回归周期分析和平稳随机序列分析的方法,把尘肺患病数量变化的时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项,经叠加后用于中长期预测。结果 揭示1960-1998年福建省尘肺时间序列中存在的规律,得出1999-2007年福建省尘肺患病数的预测值。结论 时间序列分析法可用于尘肺患病娄的预测。

关 键 词:尘肺  流行预测  时间序列分析法  研究
文章编号:1000-6486(2001)02-0027-03
修稿时间:2000年5月15日

Study on the prediction of pneumoconiosis by time sequence analysis
WANG Wen yong,CHEN Zheng.Study on the prediction of pneumoconiosis by time sequence analysis[J].China Occupational Medicine,2001,28(2):27-29.
Authors:WANG Wen yong  CHEN Zheng
Abstract:Objective To study the historical prevalent regularity and medium long term prediction of pneumoconiosis. Methods The time sequence of pneumoconiosis prevalence were recounted to tendency item, periodic item and random item with the methods of linear tendency analysis, stepwise regressive periodic analysis and stationary random sequence analysis. All items were added up and the predictions were carried out.Results The prevalent regularity in pneumoconiosis time sequence during 1960-1998 in Fujian province was revealed. The predictive values of pneumoconiosis prevalence were then attained during 1999-2007 in Fujian.Conclusion The method of time sequence analysis might be applicable to the prediction of pneumoconiosis prevalence.
Keywords:Prediction of pneumoconiosis prevalence  time sequence analysis  
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