某市性病流行特征及数学模型在发病趋势中的应用

目的：探讨广州市近5年性病疫情流行特征，为政府部门制订预防控制措施提供科学依据。方法：对近5年性病疫情报告资料进行流行病学分析，并对近5年性病报告发病率进行曲线拟合，运用线性模型预测未来3年广州市性病发病率。结果：广州市近五年性病报告发病率逐年下降，但AIDS／HIV、胎传梅毒及三期梅毒发病数及发病率呈上升趋势；性病人群中老年患者人数增加。拟合的4种数学模型均有统计学意义，其中以直线模型为佳。经预测，未来3年性病发病率仍保持下降势态。结论：根据近几年性病流行特征及未来几年发病趋势，该市应及时调整性病工作防治策略及控制工作重点。

ANALYSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FEATURES OF STDS AND APPLICATION OF MATHEMATIC MODEL TO THE STUDY OF TRENDS OF STDS

Objective:To investigate the trends and epidemiological features of sexually transmitted diseases(STD) in Guangzhou in recent 5 years and to provide scientific basis for developing preventive strategies.Methods:STD case-reporting data collected from Guangzhou in recent 5 years were analyzed with curve fitting,and generalized linear model was used to predict the incidence of STDs in the future 3 years.Results:The reported incidence of STDs decreased year by year,but that of AIDS/HIV,congenital syphilis and late syphilis increased.Aged cases increased among the STDs cases.Four mathematic model fitted showed significant difference.The best one was straight line model.Incidence of STDs predicted to be a decline trends.Conclusion:The epidemiological feature of STDs in recent years and STDs trends of future years suggest a need for readjusting control strategies and focal point.