江苏省卫生人力资源配置的公平性及预测研究

目的 评价江苏省卫生人力资源配置的公平性，预测各类卫生人员的数量，为江苏省卫生事业的发展提供理论依据。方法 运用泰尔指数与集聚度评价资源配置的公平性，运用灰色GM (1, 1) 模型、多项式回归模型、二次指数平滑法以及组合预测模型对数据进行预测。结果 2015—2019年江苏省泰尔指数总体呈上升趋势，卫生人力资源配置差异性拉大，注册护士的资源配置差异最大。从地区来看，卫生人力资源集聚度由大到小分别为苏南＞苏中＞苏北。卫生人员灰色GM (1, 1) 模型预测效果最好，其他三类人员均是组合预测模型预测效果最好。结论 江苏省应合理配置卫生人力资源，加大卫生人员的培养力度，加强卫生人才队伍建设。

Study on the equity and prediction of health human resources allocation in Jiangsu

To evaluate the equity of health human resource allocation and predict the number of health personnel, so as to provide the oretical basis for the development of health undertakings in Jiangsu province. Methods The Theil index and agglomeration degree were used to evaluate the equity of health human resource allocation. Grey GM(1,1) model, polynomial regression model, quadratic exponential smoothing model and combined prediction model were used to predict the number of health personnel. Results From 2015 to 2019, the Theil index showed an upward trend. The difference in the allocation of health human resource was widening, and the difference in the allocation of registered nurses was the largest. Regionally, the agglomeration degree of health human resources from large to small were Southern Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu, and Northern Jiangsu respectively. The grey GM(1,1) model had the best prediction effect in health personnel, and the combination prediction model had the best prediction effect in the other three types of personnel. Conclusion Jiangsu Province should allocate health human resources rationally, increase the training of health personnel, and strengthen the construction of health personnel.