基于ESDA的湖北省新冠肺炎疫情分析

目的 分析湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势及时空聚集性，为防控工作提供依据。方法 收集湖北省1月22日—3月25日新冠肺炎发病、死亡与治愈数据，描述疫情趋势，并通过GeoDa1.14.0软件进行空间自相关分析。结果 2020年1月22日 - 3月25日期间，湖北省共报告新冠肺炎67 801例，新增确诊病例数总体呈先上升后下降趋势，2月12日当天新增人数激增；累计确诊和死亡人数较高地区集中在湖北省东北部，武汉市为确诊及死亡人数最多的地区；湖北省累计确诊全局自相关不显著（Moran’s I≠0，P＞0.05），累计死亡则在1月22日存在全局空间负相关（Moran’s I = - 0.01306，z = - 1.7797，P = 0.01），此后全局自相关不显著（P＞0.05）；累计确诊及死亡人数局部空间自相关均存在显著聚集与异常情况（P＜0.05），武汉市呈“高—低”异常，其周围地区（黄冈市、鄂州市、黄石市）呈“低—高”异常。结论 湖北省新冠肺炎疫情未存在显著的空间聚集性，武汉市作为疫情高值区未发生转移。建议 湖北省的防控工作仍应将武汉市作为重点，复工复产要采取差异化策略，应当分区、分时进行。

Analysis of epidemic situation of COVID-19 based on ESDA

To analyze the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Hubei Province and its spatial and temporal aggregation to provide a basis for prevention and control. Methods Collect data on the incidence, death and cure of COVID-19 in Hubei Province from January 22 to March 25, describe the trend of epidemic situation, and conduct spatial autocorrelation analysis through GeoDa1.14.0 software. Results From January 22 to March 25, 2020, Hubei Province reported a total of 67,801 cases of COVID-19. The number of newly diagnosed cases increased first and then decreased. The number of newly added people surged on the day of February 12. The cumulative number of diagnoses and deaths were concentrated in the northeast of Hubei Province, and Wuhan is the area with the largest number of diagnoses and deaths. The cumulative autocorrelation of the total number of diagnoses in Hubei Province is not significant(Moran’s I≠0, P>0.05), and the cumulative deaths arewere negatively correlated in the global space on January 22(Moran’s I=-0.01306, z=-1.7797, P=0.01) on the 22 nd. After that, the global autocorrelation was not significant(P>0.05). There was a significant aggregation of the cumulative diagnosis and local spatial autocorrelation of deaths Contrary to the anomaly(P <0.05), Wuhan City exhibited a "high-low" anomaly, and the surrounding areas exhibited a "low-high" anomaly(such as Huanggang, Ezhou, Huangshi). Conclusion There is no spatial aggregation in the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, and Wuhan City, as a high-value epidemic area and hot spot, has not shifted. The prevention and control work in Hubei Province should still focus on Wuhan City, and the resumption of production and production should adopt a differentiated strategy, which should be carried out by division and time sharing.