集中度结合圆分布法对河南省2010年手足口病发病时间聚集性的分析

目的 分析河南省2010年手足口病发病时间的聚集性,探讨集中度和圆分布法的应用.方法 应用集中度结合圆分布法对河南省2010年手足口病发病时间数据进行分析.结果 2010年手足口病发病时间集中度M值为0.595.圆分布法平均角(α)对应日期即手足口病集中发病倾向时间为5月11日,5月11日前发病数占全年49.65％,5月11日及以后发病数占全年50.35％.发病时间的68.28％可信区间为3月11日～7月10日,此时间段实际发病数占全年病例总数的74.15％.平均角雷氏检验P＜0.01.结论 2010年河南省手足口病发病具有较强季节性,流行高峰期为3上旬～7月上旬,集中发病倾向时间为5月中上旬.

Analysis on the temporal clustering of hand-foot-mouth disease by concentration ratio and circular distribution in Henan province in 2010

OBJECTIVE To analyze the temporal clustering and distribution characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2010 in Henan province,and to evaluate the application of concentration ratio and circular distribution.METHODS The incidence data of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2010 in Henan province was analyzed by concentration ratio and circular distribution.RESULTS The concentration ratio M-value was 0.595 The corresponding date of mean angle in circular distribution analysis,that was the inclined date of concentration incidence time,was 11th May,and the proportion of cases before 11th May was 49.65%.The 68.28% C.I.for incidence was from 11th March to 10th July,and the proportion of cases in the period was 74.15%.P﹤0.01 in Rayleigh Z test.CONCLUSION The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease presents a stronger seasonal concentration clustering in 2010 in Henan province,and the main epidemic time is from 11th March to 10th July,the concentration time of incidence is inclined within the former half of May.