2003—2007年上海市低温寒流季节超额死亡分析

目的]分析低温寒流天气对上海市居民超额死亡的影响,为加强极端气候应急预警,提高防灾减灾能力提供依据。方法]收集2003—2007年低温期间（当年11月20日至次年3月30日）的死亡个案资料,与同期气象数据进行对比,分析寒流季节气温变化与居民超额死亡关系。结果]2008年1月中旬至2月下旬,上海市各旬日平均气温较历年平均气温偏低1.13～5.17℃。2007年低温期期间,上海市共死亡43441人,较往年同期平均超额死亡2641人。2003—2007年低温期间,随着日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温的下降,每日死亡人数随之上升,死亡人数与气温之间存在明显负相关关系（相关系数分别为r平均气温=-0.45、r最高气温=-0.38、r最低气温=-0.49）。结论]低温天气灾害带来的气温骤降和天气急剧变化影响群众生命健康,导致居民超额死亡的增加。

Low Temperature-Induced Excess Mortality in Shanghai, 2003-2007

Objective ] To describe low temperature-induced excess mortality in Shanghai, and to provide scientific basis for extreme weather warning and disaster reduction and mitigation. Methods ] Data of deaths in Shanghai during November 20 through March 30 next year between 2003-2007 were accumulated, meteorological data during the same period were also collected, and then their relationship was analyzed. Results ] From mid January to late February of 2008, the average ten-day temperatures were lower than the historical average temperature by 1.13 ℃ to 5.17 %. During the low temperature period of 2007, a total of 43 441 people died in Shanghai, 2 641 more than the average over the same period in previous years. With the drop of daily average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, the daily deaths increased accordingly. There was a significant negative correlation between the number of deaths and the temperature （ravg=-0.45, rmax=-0.38, train=-0.49）. Conclusion ] Dramatic changes in weather and temperature induced by low temperature pose threats to people＇s health, leading to an increase in excess mortality.