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新疆乌鲁木齐市男男性行为人群HIV传播动力学的预测和分析
引用本文:林丹丹,曾婷,张曼,冯兴,王玮明,王凯.新疆乌鲁木齐市男男性行为人群HIV传播动力学的预测和分析[J].中国感染控制杂志,2019,18(5):388-395.
作者姓名:林丹丹  曾婷  张曼  冯兴  王玮明  王凯
作者单位:新疆乌鲁木齐市男男性行为人群HIV传播动力学的预测和分析
基金项目:国家自然科学基金(11461073)
摘    要:目的建立人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染传播动力学模型,评估男男性行为(MSM)人群HIV感染状况,并预测未来十年新疆乌鲁木齐市MSM人群HIV的流行趋势,为制定合适的防控措施提供定量依据。方法利用新疆乌鲁木齐市2009—2017年MSM人群HIV的监测数据,建立HIV传播的动力学模型。通过模型分析得到决定疾病传播与否的基本再生数R0,并用收集和估计的参数对模型进行数值模拟,分析乌鲁木齐市MSM人群HIV的流行状况。结果建立的MSM人群HIV的传播动力学模型拟合效果合理平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)=10.89%,均方根百分比误差(RMSPE)=25.74%],基本再生数R0≈0.2616(95%CI:0.2394~0.9299),该模型预测2027年乌鲁木齐市MSM人群HIV的阳性率下降至2%。参数敏感性分析发现,由低危易感者发展成为高危易感者的比例、由HIV感染者发展成为艾滋病患者的比例和高危易感者发展成为低危易感者的比例是影响MSM人群HIV流行的主要因素。结论乌鲁木齐市MSM人群HIV感染呈现持续流行,相关部门应加强对MSM人群的防控,推广安全套的使用,加强宣传教育等综合性干预措施,控制MSM人群HIV的流行。

关 键 词:男男性行为  MSM  人类免疫缺陷病毒  HIV  基本再生数  动力学模型  预测  
收稿时间:2019-01-02

Prediction and analysis of HIV transmission dynamics among men who have sex with men in Urumqi, Xinjiang
LIN Dan-dan,ZENG Ting,ZHANG Man,FENG Xing,WANG Wei-ming,WANG Kai.Prediction and analysis of HIV transmission dynamics among men who have sex with men in Urumqi, Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Infection Control,2019,18(5):388-395.
Authors:LIN Dan-dan  ZENG Ting  ZHANG Man  FENG Xing  WANG Wei-ming  WANG Kai
Institution:1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China;2. Department of Mathematics, Medical Engineering and Technology College, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi 830011, China;3. Department of STD and AIDS Prevention and Control, Urumqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi 830026, China;4. School of Mathematical Science, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai'an 223300, China
Abstract:Objective To establish the transmission dynamics model of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, evaluate HIV infection status of men who have sex with men (MSM), and predict HIV epidemic trend of MSM population in Urumqi of Xinjiang in the next decade, so as to provide quantitative basis for formulating appropriate prevention and control measures. Methods Based on HIV surveillance data of MSM population in Urumqi from 2009 to 2017, a dynamic model of HIV transmission was established. Through the model analysis, basic reproductive number R0 which determined disease spread was obtained, model was numerically simulated with the collected and estimated parameters to analyze the prevalence of HIV among MSM in Urumqi. Results Fitting effect of the established HIV transmission dynamics model for MSM population was rational (mean absolute percentage errorMAPE]=10.89%, root mean square percentage errorRMSPE]=25.74%, basic reproductive number R0≈0.261695%CI:0.2394-0.9299]), model predicted that the HIV positive rate of MSM population in Urumqi would decrease to 2% by 2027. Parametric sensitivity analysis found that the main factors affecting HIV prevalence in MSM population were the proportion of low-risk susceptible persons developing into high-risk susceptible persons, proportion of HIV-infected persons developing into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients, and proportion of high-risk susceptible persons developing into low-risk susceptible persons. Conclusion HIV infection among MSM population in Urumqi continues to be prevalent, relevant departments should strengthen the prevention and control of MSM population, promote condom use, strengthen publicity, education and other comprehensive intervention measures, so as to control HIV prevalence among MSM population.
Keywords:men who have sex with men  MSM  human immunodeficiency virus  HIV  basic reproductive number  dynamic model  prediction  
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