深圳市人口平均预期寿命的估计

目的：在缺乏准确年龄别死亡率的情况下，估计人口平均预期寿命。方法：分别根据人口普查数据估算，通过平均预期寿命和婴儿死亡率的相关关系推算，采用“最佳老龄平均余生”公式，以及通过模型寿命表对85岁以上年龄组过高预期寿命校正等进行间接估计。结果：深圳市0岁平均预期寿命1989年约为74．32岁，1998年约为75．49岁，该结果与深圳市人口健康发的实际水平较吻合，有关专家一致认为其接深圳市的实际情况，被区域卫生发展规划采用，结论：在没有准确死亡数据的国家、城市或者地区，应用间接方法估计平均预期寿命是可行的。

Indirect Estimation of Life Expectancy at Birth in Shenzhen

Objective To estimate the life expectancy in absence of accurate age specific mortalities.Methods On the data from the 4th National Population Census and Municipal Maternal and Children Health System, 5 indirect procedures are applied to estimate the life expectancies, three of these seem reasonable, these are model life table, formulas expressing death rate, survival probability and life expectancy proposed by Chung in 1995, and linear regression indicating the relationship between life expectancy and infant mortality rate. Furthermore, we did combination estimation of these techniques. Results The estimated life expectancy at birth in Shenzhen in 1989 was about 74.32 years, and in 1998 was about 75.49 years respectively, which were considered rather near to the real value by the national experts and the municipal health management officers in the point that it is with a close agreement in reflecting the municipal health status and population characteristics. The result has been applied by the district health program and other health policy programs. Conclusion Our work suggested that it might be of value to do indirect estimation for the life expectancy in cities or conuntries without accurate age-specific death rates.