回归分析在肿瘤医院门诊量、床位和手术单元决策中的应用

目的探讨回归分析法在肿瘤医院门诊量、床位和手术单元决策中的应用。方法采用SPSS15．0软件对数据进行统计分析，指标预测采用线性回归分析。结果经过回归分析，年份与门诊量之间的线性关系良好（F=9（14．8．P〈0．001），用年份来预测门诊量结果稳定，决定系数为0．995，预测未来5年门诊量将突破10万，需要新增2个诊室单元：同时，新发恶性肿瘤病例数与门诊量之间的线性关系良好（F=323．6，P〈O．001），用门诊量来预测用新发恶性肿瘤病例数结果稳定，决定系数为0．985，预计未来5年新发恶性肿瘤病例数将达到1714例，每周需要的手术单元数从现在的7个正台增加到10个正台才能满足需求，预计2017年需要增加病房床位。结论回归分析能对科室内部重要运营指标进行较为准确的预测，对于科室制定发展规划以及管理决策中有重大的意义。

Application of Regression. Analysis in the Decision-Making of Outpatient Amout,Bed and Operation unit in the Cancer Hospital

Objective To explore the application of regression analysis in the decision-making of department management. Method Linear regression analysis was conducted to predict indicators with, SPSS 15.0. Result The outpatient capacity had a good linear relationship with year（F=904.8, P〈0.001）, and year showed a coefficient of determination 0.995 for predicting outpatient capacity. It is predicted that the outpatient capacity exceeded 100 000 in next 5 years and two consulting units are needed. The outpatient capacity also presented good linear relationship with new cancer cases（F=904.8, P〈0.001） and can be used ..for prediction with a coefficient of determination 0.985. It is predicted the number of new cancer cases will reach 1 714 in next five years and surgical units will increase from 7 to 10 per week. Ward bed should be increased as well. Conclusion Precise prediction of indicators reflecting depart- ment operating can be made by regression analysis, which is of great importance in decision-making for the develop- ment and management of department.