医疗资源规划中卫生服务需求法与趋势外推法对比分析研究

目的：通过测算2020年中国千人口床位数总量，对比分析卫生服务需求法与趋势外推法在医疗资源规划中的应用。方法采用卫生服务需求和年均增长速度及时间序列等趋势外推法。结果利用卫生服务需求法测算出的千人口床位数为5.99～6.72，利用年均增长速度趋势外推法测算出2020年千人口床位数为6.68张，利用时间序列中线性趋势和DAMPED预测出2020年千人口床位数为7.38张和6.08张。结论根据不同方法测算结果及其结合国际一些国家千人口资源现状及变化趋势，确定了2020年全国千人口床位数为6.3张（6.0～6.7张）。同时，也比较分析不同方法在资源规划中应注意的问题及其每种方法主要特征，最后得出不同方法在资源规划测算过程中是相辅相成、密不可分的。

The Comtarative Analysis of Health Service Demand and Trend Extrapolation in Health Resource Planning

Objectives Do the comparison and analyze the application of health service demand and trend extrapo-lation in the hospital resource planning through the calculation of the total quantity of hospital beds per thousand people by 2020.Methods Methods like the measurement of health service demands ,average annual growth rate and the trend extrapolation of the time series were used.Results Calculated by the health service demand ,the beds per thousand people were between 5.99 and 6.72.At the meantime ,the beds per thousand people would be 6.68 by 2020 ,while using the method of trend extrapolation.Predicted by the linear trend of time series and damped ,we found that the beds per thousand people would be 7.38 and 6.08 by 2020.Conclusions Assured by the result of dif-ferent measurements and the combination of existing circumstance and the change tendency of several national wide countries ,the number of beds per thousand people will be 6.3 by 2020(6.0~6.7 per thousand people).Meanwhile , we should be cautious about the discrepancy of method varies and the imperative characteristic among them. Finally we found that in the calculation process of resource planning ,different measurements are connected and coexisted.