基于ARIMA模型核应急卫生技术人员调配预测分析

目的 分析1995-2013年四川省医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员数并预测2014-2020年卫生技术人员需求量,从而为四川省核应急医疗卫生人力资源的有效合理调配提供参考依据。方法 从四川省卫生统计年鉴、四川卫生年鉴、四川省统计局统计公报中选取1995-2013年四川省医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员数,并运用ARIMA(1,2,1)模型对其进行分析及预测。结果 2014-2020年四川省医疗卫生技术人员数呈平稳的上升趋势,到2020年卫生技术人员需求量增至64.97万人。结论 ARIMA模型适用于卫生技术人员需求量的预测,未来四川省应加大对医疗卫生系统卫生技术人员的培养及引进力度,以保证核应急卫生人力资源的有效合理调配并提高核事故医学应急处置能力。

Forecast Analysis on Demand of Medical Workers in Sichuan Province Based on the ARIMA Model for Deploying the Nuclear Emergency Medical Resources.

Objective To forecast the demand of medical workers from 2014 to 2020 year by the data of medical workers in Sichuan province, and provide foundation for deploying the nuclear emergency medical technician resources rationally. Meth- ods The demand of medical workers was analyzed and forecasted by the ARIMA （ 1,2,1 ） Model with Selecting the medical workers from the data during 1995 -2013 from Sichuan Health Statistics Yearbook, Sichuan Statistical Year Book and Statistics Bulletin of Sichuan Statistics Bureau. Results It showed that the demand of medical workers in Sichuan province would rise smoothly, up to 649 700 in 2020 year. Conclusion It is suitable for forecasting the demand of the medical workers by ARIMA model. Then it should strengthen the efforts to train and bring in medical workers in order to deploy the nuclear emergency medical workers resources rationally and improve the nuclear medical emergency disploying capabilities.