An AIDS model with distributed incubation and variable infectiousness: Applications to IV drug users in Latium,Italy |
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Authors: | M. Iannelli R. Loro F. Milner A. Pugliese G. Rabbiolo |
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Affiliation: | (1) Dipartimento di Matematica, Universitá di Trento, 38050 Povo (TN), Italy;(2) Dipartimento di Matematica, II Università di Roma, Italy;(3) Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, 47907 West Lafayette, IN, U.S.A. |
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Abstract: | An AIDS model with distributed incubation and variable infectiousness is considered and simulated via a second-order numerical method. The method is applied to the HIV epidemic among IV drug users in the Latium region of Italy, using available data on the lenght of the incubation period before the onset of AIDS, on the infectivity of infected individuals during that period, and on the demography of drug users. The contact rate is adjusted to match the actual number of AIDS cases. The sensitivity of the model to uncertainties in the parameters is finally investigated, by performing several simulations. |
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Keywords: | HIV/AIDS Mathematical model IV drug users |
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