| 2005年成都市麻疹模拟实时监测与预警研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杜长慧,殷菲,尹仲良.2005年成都市麻疹模拟实时监测与预警研究[J].职业卫生与病伤,2010,25(5):261-264. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杜长慧 殷菲 尹仲良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 成都市疾病预防控制中心,四川,成都610041
2. 四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室 |
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| 基金项目： | 成都市卫生局重大医学联合攻关项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 目的探索前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量在麻疹早期预警中的应用。方法模拟实时监测,采用前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量,对成都市2005年麻疹数据进行逐日前瞻性分析。结果以6月份预警结果为例,6月10日发出预警信号,该预警信号包括的天数为2 d,所包括的乡镇街道为武侯区的簇桥街道和金花桥街道。结论前瞻性时空重排扫描统计量能充分利用数据信息,及时探测到传染病的聚集性发病。
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| 关 键 词： | 传染病监测 聚集性探测 时空聚集性 |
Simulating Real-time Surveillance and Early Warning of Measles in Chengdu |
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| DU Chang-hui,Yin Fei,YING Zhong-liang.Simulating Real-time Surveillance and Early Warning of Measles in Chengdu[J].Journal of Occupational Health and Damage,2010,25(5):261-264. |
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| Authors: | DU Chang-hui Yin Fei YING Zhong-liang |
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| Institution: | DU Chang-hui,Yin Fei,YING Zhong-liang(Chengdu Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China ) |
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| Abstract: | Objective To investigate the application of prospective space-time permutation scan statistic in the early warning of measles outbreak.Methods The prospective analysis on measles epidemic data in Chengdu in 2009 was conducted by using prospective space-time permutation scan statistic.Results For example,a warning was given on 10 June,which lasted for 2 days and covered Cuqiao street and Jinhua street in Wuhou District.Conclusion The prospective space-time permutation scan statistic could make full use of the data and timely detect the outbreak of communicable disease. |
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| Keywords: | Communicable disease surveillance Cluster detection Space-time clustering |
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