2004—2005年内蒙古自治区布鲁氏菌病发病的空间自相关分析

目的分析近年内蒙古自治区布鲁氏菌病的空间自相关性及其流行蔓延趋势。方法运用空间自相关分析方法，采用SPSS13．0、R软件和GeoDA对布鲁氏菌病发病资料进行分析，再用MapInfo进行专属地图表达。结果2004和2005年内蒙古布鲁氏菌病的发病率分别为19．63／10万和38．23／10万；全局Moran’SⅠ系数分别为0．2404和0．4786；局域系数统计分析显示2004年布鲁氏菌病在内蒙古存在一个高值聚集区，2005年存在两个高值聚集区，同时出现低值聚集区；局域Moran’SⅠ系数显示2004和2005年Moran’SⅠ小于0的地区分别有27和26个，主要集中在发病率较高地区，Moran’SⅠ大于0的地区主要集中在发病率较低地区。结论布鲁氏菌病发病率和空间自相关系数大小的分布存在一定空间统一性和差异性，利用空间自相关分析方法探讨布鲁氏菌病空间分布模式有助于加深对内蒙古地区布鲁氏菌病流行蔓延趋势的认识。

Spatial autocorrelation analysis on brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2005

Objective To analyze the spatial autocorrelation of Brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2004 to 200：5. Methods Based on the data collected from the national notifiable infectious disease reporting system and the fifth census, the analysis of spatial autocorrelation of brucellosis of the 101 counties in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was carried out by SPSS 13.0, R software and GeoDA, then the results were presented in the map by Map Info. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia was 19.63/100 000 in 2004. And the incidence in 2005 was 38.23/100 000. Based on the spatial autocorrelation analysis, the global Moran＇s Ⅰ coefficient of Inner Mongolia is 0. 240 4 in 2004 and 0. 478 6 in 2005. The high-value cluster areas were detected both in 2004 and 2005. The low-value cluster areas were detected only in 2005. The number of counties whose local Moran＇s Ⅰ smaller than zero was 27 in 2004 and 26 in 2005, and most of counties were in the high incidence areas. Counties of Moran＇s Ⅰ coefficient which was greater than zero was clustered in the low incidence areas. Conclusions The incidence of brucellosis has a trend of increase from 2004 to 2005. There is a certain unity and diversity in distribution of incidence and spatial autocorrelation coefficient. Using spatial autocorrelation to analyze the spatial distribution of brucellosis in Inner Mongolia can provide valuable clues and theoretical basis for public health workers.