中国COVID-19疫情的空间格局和时空演化

  目的  掌握COVID-19疫情的空间格局和时空变化特征，探索其分布和扩散规律，有助于更好地防控COVID-19疫情扩散。  方法  本文以2020年1月22日-5月26日中国COVID-19疫情省级逐日发病率数据为数据源，利用空间自相关技术分析COVID-19疫情的空间格局，并利用重心轨迹迁移算法对其进行时空演化分析。  结果  在研究时间段范围内，中国COVID-19疫情在省级尺度上具有较强的空间依赖性。2020年1月22日-5月26日，中国COVID-19疫情的全局空间关联程度呈由强变弱再增强的发展趋势，Moran's I在(-0.04，-0.02)区间内，均为负值且波动范围小；疫情总体呈现以湖北省武汉市为中心，向周围城市蔓延扩散且随机分布的空间格局，国内疫情主要以高-低集聚为主，高-高集聚集中在香港和澳门特别行政区，而湖北省一直处于高-低集聚模式，并且在研究时间段内高-低集聚模式只有湖北省一个省份，低-低集聚模式主要集中在黑龙江省和西藏自治区；T₁-T₃时间段疫情以武汉市为中心向西北方向急剧扩散，T₄-T₆时间段范围内疫情逐渐转为向西南方向发展扩散，T₇-T₉时间段内疫情向东北方向扩散蔓延。  结论  在今后的疫情防控工作中应更注重疫情空间扩散模式的研究，探索影响扩散的因素，为后期精准防疫措施的制定提供有力的理论支撑。

The spatial pattern and spatio-temporal evolution of COVID-19 in China

  Objective  To better control the spread of COVID-19, it is important to understand the spatial pattern of COVID-19 and its spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, and explore its distribution and diffusion laws.  Methods  In this study, based on the daily incidence data of COVID-19 in China from January 22 to May 26, 2020, spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the spatial pattern of COVID-19, and center of gravity trajectory migration algorithm was used to explore spatial-temporal evolution process.  Results  In the study period, COVID-19 had strong spatial dependence at the provincial scale. From January 22 to May 26, 2020, the global spatial correlation of COVID-19 showed a trend of increasing from strong to weak. Moran's I was negative in the range of (-0.04, -0.02) and had a small fluctuation range. The COVID-19 epidemic in China showed a general pattern with Wuhan City in Hubei Province as the center, spreading to the surrounding cities and random distribution. The domestic epidemic were mainly high-low clusters, and high-high clusters were distributed in Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions, while Hubei Province had been in the high-low clusters. In the study period, the high-low cluster was only one province in Hubei Province, and the low-low clusters were mainly distributed in Heilongjiang Province and Tibet Autonomous Region. During the T₁-T₃ period, the epidemic spread rapidly from Wuhan City to the northwest. During the T₄-T₆ period, the epidemic gradually spread to the southwest. During the T₇-T₉ period, the epidemic spread to the northeast.  Conclusions  In the future epidemic prevention and control work, we should pay more attention to the study of epidemic spatial diffusion model, explore the factors affecting diffusion, so as to provide strong theoretical support for the formulation of precise epidemic prevention measures.