The effect of RCTs on drug demand: Evidence from off-label cancer drugs |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University Distinguished Professor and E. Bronson Ingram Professor of Economics, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, Vanderbilt University, 306 Calhoun Hall, Nashville, TN 37027, United States;2. Assistant Professor of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst, 221 Stockbridge Hall, Amherst, MA 01003, United States;3. Assistant Professor of Economics, Vanderbilt University, Faculty Research Fellow, National Bureau of Economic Research, 306 Calhoun Hall, Nashville, TN 37027, United States |
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| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of scientific information from randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs) on the demand for off-label uses of cancer drugs. This is a unique setting where demand for a drug for a specific use is observable both before and after the first RCT results are released. Using variation in the timing of RCTs across off-label uses of drugs, I find that demand responds asymmetrically to the trial results based on the statistical significance of the clinically relevant endpoint. When this endpoint is statistically significant, there is a large and immediate increase in demand. When this end point is not statistically significant, physicians are relatively slow to abandon use of the drug. |
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| Keywords: | Pharmaceuticals Off-label prescribing Cancer Healthcare economics Regulation |
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