利用空间自回归模型分析儿童尿碘的变异

目的　探讨碘缺乏病监测资料儿童尿碘的空间自相关性及变异情况 ,为地方病的防治提供科学的依据 ,为疾病空间数据的分析提供统计学方法上的参考。方法　资料来源于四川省 95、97、99年碘缺乏病监测资料 ,以尿碘水平为应变量 ,盐碘水平与海拔为自变量分别对三年的资料拟合直线回归与空间自回归模型。结果　三年儿童尿碘总变异中 ,由盐碘、海拔及空间自相关三者所解释的变异占总变异的 6 9 8%、32 8%、4 3 9% ;扣除海拔后 ,由其它空间变异所解释的变异分别为 5 7 6 %、2 1 4 %、18 8%。尿碘水平与盐碘水平呈现正相关 ,与海拔呈现负相关。结论　儿童尿碘水平在地理空间上具有一定的聚集性 ,儿童尿碘水平的个体水平差异正在逐渐减少 ,儿童碘营养状况得到较好改善 ,碘缺乏防治效果明显

Analysis on variation of urinary iodine of children by spatial autoregressive model

Objective To study spatial autocorrelation and spatial variation of urinary iodine of children and to provide references for statistical data analysis of spatial disease. Methods Taking urinary iodine as response variable, salt iodine and altitude as independent variable, linear regression and spatial autoregressive models were made. Results 69.8%,32.8%,43.9% variations of children urinary iodine were caused by salt iodine, altitude and spatial autocorrelation in 1995,1997 and 1999, took altitude away, 57.6%,21.4%,18.8% of variations of urinary iodine were caused by other spatial factors. Positive correlation was showed between the level of urinary iodine and salt iodine, negative correlation was showed between urinary iodine and altitude. Conclusion There was higher clustering in the geographical location among urinary iodine of children, the level of urinary iodine had been decreased since 1995. This implied that status of nutrition had been improved and one of most effective way to control iodine deficiency disorders was through universal salt iodization.