负二项和修正Poisson回归在伤害频次影响因素研究中的应用

目的 探讨Poisson和负二项回归模型在伤害频次影响因素研究中的应用及引发伤害频次增加的危险因素.方法 对合肥市某县整群随机抽取的中小学校的2917名在册学生进行问卷调查,得到的数据拟合修正Poisson回归和负二项回归模型,并比较其拟合效果,筛选出儿童青少年增加意外伤害发生次数的危险因素,探讨两种方法分析的合理性.结果 用Lagrange乘子检验发现该资料Poisson模型中存在过离散(P ＜O.0001),籍此分别用修正Poisson回归和负二项回归对过离散伤害频次数据进行分析,结果显示修正Poisson回归模型拟合较好.回归分析均显示男性,年龄小,父亲外出打工,监护人文化程度初中以上和吸烟为导致伤害频次增加的危险因素.结论 对于具有聚集性趋向的伤害频次数据,应该采用修正Poisson回归分析和负二项回归分析模型分析其影响因素,结果修正Poisson回归拟合效果更好,或能更准确的解释有关因素对伤害频次影响的情况.

Application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression in the research of risk factors for injury frequency

Objective To Eexplore the application of negative binomial regression and modified Poisson regression analysis in analyzing the influential factors for injury frequency and the risk factors leading to the increase of injury frequency.Methods 2917 primary and secondary school students were selected from Hefei by cluster random sampling method and surveyed by questionnaire.The data on the count event-based injuries used to fitted modified Poisson regression and negative binomial regression model.The risk fact...