基于年龄-时期-队列模型分析1990—2019年中国胆道癌死亡趋势的研究

目的 基于年龄-时期-队列模型分析中国1990—2019年胆道癌死亡趋势,为胆道癌的防控提供科学依据。方法 基于2019年全球疾病负担(Global burden of disease,GBD)中1990—2019年20~84岁中国居民胆道癌的死亡数据,运用年龄-时期-队列(Age-period-cohort,APC)模型分析年龄、时期和队列对胆道癌死亡率变化的影响。结果 1990—2019年中国胆道癌死亡率呈上升趋势,2019年死亡率增加至2.42/10万,男性和女性死亡率分别增加至2.45/10万和2.39/10万,与1990年相比增长了1.46%,男性和女性分别增长了1.75%和1.07%。APC模型结果显示,1990—2019年男性和女性死亡风险均随年龄的增长而增加;随时期的推移呈现先下降后上升再下降的趋势;出生越晚的男性死亡风险越高;出生越晚的女性死亡风险越低。结论 1990—2019年中国胆道癌死亡率呈上升趋势,老年人群和越晚出生的男性死亡风险较高,胆道癌的防治工作应加强关注高危人群。

Mortality trends of biliary tract cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on an age-period-cohort model

Objective The Objective of this study was to analyze the effect of age-time-cohort model on long-term trend of biliary tract cancer mortality in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of biliary tract cancer.Methods Based on the Global burden of disease(GBD)mortality data of Chinese residents with biliary tract cancer aged 20-84 from 1990 to 2019,the age-time-cohort(APC)model was used to analyze age effects of period and cohort on changes in biliary tract cancer mortality.Results The mortality of biliary tract cancer in China showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.In 2019,the mortality rate increased to 2.42/100,000,and the mortality for men and women increased to 2.45/100,000 and 2.39/100,000,respectively.Compared with 1990,an increase was 1.46%,men and women increased by 1.75% and 1.07%,respectively.The results of the APC model showed that the risk of death increased with age in both men and women from 1990 to 2019.The mortality first decreased,then increased and then decreased with the passage of time;men born later were at higher risk of death and women born later at lower risk of death.Conclusion The mortality of biliary tract cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an upward trend.Elderly and men born later were at higher risk of death.The prevention and treatment of biliary tract cancer should pay more attention high-risk groups.