Impact of overweight and obesity on US renal cell carcinoma incidence trends (1995-2018)

In the United States, renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence and the prevalence of obesity, an established risk factor for RCC, have been increasing for several decades. RCC is more common among older individuals. We sought to quantify the contribution of excess adiposity to the rising incidence of RCC among individuals 60 years or older. National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons Diet and Health Study data (n = 453 859 participants, enrolled in 1995-1996, age at enrollment 50-71 years) were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for RCC across body mass index categories and HRs associated with smoking. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated using estimated HRs and annual overweight/obesity prevalence from the National Health Interview Survey (1985-2008). PAF estimates were combined with RCC incidence from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-13 to calculate annual percent changes in RCC incidence attributable (and unrelated) to overweight/obesity. We found that between 1995 and 2018, among individuals aged 60 years and older, PAF for overweight/obesity increased from 18% to 29% for all RCCs. In comparison, the PAF for smoking declined from 12% to 9%. RCC incidence increased 1.8% per year (95% confidence interval CI] 1.5%-2.1%) overall, while RCC incidence attributable to overweight/obesity increased 3.8% per year (95%CI 3.5%-4.2%) and RCC incidence unrelated to overweight/obesity increased 1.2% per year (95% CI 0.9%-1.4%). In conclusion, overweight/obesity appears to have contributed importantly to the rising incidence of RCC in the United States since the mid-1990s. Public health interventions focused on reducing overweight and obesity could help substantially in curbing this trend.